Some BL stats

I thought I should do some analysis of my prediction results on a team-by-team basis

So here we go (points are based on teams, not matches, so are just indicative):

Arsenal: Six played - three right, NO perfect scores - 50% success rate (0.5pts)

Aston Villa: Six played - three right, NO perfect scores - 50% success rate (0.5pts)

Birmingham: Seven played - four right, NO perfect scores - 57% success rate (1.5 pts)

Blackburn: Six played - three right, NO perfect scores - 50% success rate (0pts)

Bolton: Six played - two right, NO perfect scores - 33% success rate (-1.5pts)

Burnley: Seven played - four right, two perfect scores - 57% success rate (5pts)

Chelsea: Seven played - four right, one perfect score - 57% success rate (3pts)

Everton: Six played - four right, one perfect score - 66% success rate (5pts)

Fulham: Six played - four right, one perfect score - 66% success rate (5pts)

Hull: Seven played - five right, one perfect score - 71% success rate (5pts)

Liverpool: Seven played - five right, NO perfect scores - 71% success rate (3.5pts)

Manchester City: Six played, four right, NO perfect scores - 66% success rate (2.5pts)

Manchester United: Seven played - three right, NO perfect scores - 43% success rate (-0.5pts)

Portsmouth: Seven played - seven right, two perfect scores - 100% success rate (11.5pts)

Stoke: Seven played - three right, one perfect score - 43% success rate (1.5pts)

Sunderland: Seven played - five right, NO perfect scores - 71% success rate (3.5pts)

Tottenham: Seven played - five right, one perfect score - 71% success rate (5pts)

West Ham: Six played, four right, two perfect scores - 66% (6.5pts)

Wigan: Seven played - four right, one perfect score - 57% success rate (3.5pts)

Wolves: Seven played - four right, one perfect scores - 57% success rate (3pts)

Most successful teams:

100% - Portsmouth
71% - Hull, Liverpool, Sunderland, Tottenham
66% - Everton, Fulham, West ham, City
57% - Birmingham, Burnley, Chelsea, Wigan, Wolves
50% - Arsenal, Villa, Blackburn
43% - Manchester United, Stoke
33% - Bolton

Perfect scores
Two - Burnley, Portsmouth, West Ham
One - Chelsea, Everton, Fulham, Hull, Stoke, Tottenham, Wigan, Wolves
None - Arsenal, Villa, Birmingham, Blackburn, Bolton, Liverpool, City, United, Sunderland

Best pointers: (I'm just doing this to give Portsmouth some points)

Portsmouth (11.5)
West Ham (6.5)
Burnley, Everton, Fulham, Hull, Tottenham (5)
Liverpool, Sunderland, Wigan (3.5)
Chelsea, Wolves (3)
City (2.5)
Birmingham, Stoke (1.5)
Arsenal, Villa (0.5)
Blackburn (0)

Negative nellies:
United (-0.5)
Bolton (-1.5)

So trust me with Portsmouth, and I really need to work on United and Bolton

Beat Lawro week 7 Results

Premier League Results:

Portsmouth 0 - 1 Everton

Tarquin: 0-1 = 3pts
Lawro: 1-1 = -1

Birmingham 1 - 2 Bolton

Tarquin: 1-1 = -1
Lawro: 1-2 = 3pts

Blackburn 2 - 1 Aston Villa


Tarquin: 0-1 = -1
Lawro: 1-2 = -1

Liverpool 6-1 Hull City


Tarquin: 3-0 = 1
Lawro: 3-0 = 1


Stoke 0-2 Manchester United

Tarquin: 1-1 = -1
Lawro: 1-1 = -1

Tottenham 5-0 Burnley

Tarquin: 3-0 = 1
Lawro: 3-0 = 1


Wigan 3-1 Chelsea

Tarquin: 0-3 = -1
Lawro: 0-2 = -1

Fulham 0-1 Arsenal

Tarquin: 1-2 = 1.5
Lawro: 1-2 = 1.5

Sunderland 5-2 Wolverhampton

Tarquin: 2-0 = 1
Lawro: 1-1 = -1

Man City 3-1 West Ham

Tarquin: 3-0 = 1
Lawro: 2-0 = 1.5

Told you it'd be close - honours even until the Sunday match clinched it for me!

Tarquin got 6 right, one perfect = 4.5 pts
Lawro got 5 right, one perfect = 3 pts

7 weeks played, 66 matches
5-2 to Tarquin

Lawro - 38 right, 7 perfects - 26 points
Tarquin - 40 right, 7 perfects - 32.5 points

Beat Lawro week 7

It's back...like every week

Current Standings:

6 weeks played, 56 matches
4-2 to Tarquin

Lawro - 33 right, 6 perfects - 23 points
Tarquin - 34 right, 6 perfects - 28 points

Need to put some daylight between us I think...

Portsmouth v Everton (1245 BST)

Can Pompey get a point finally? One day they will, but I will never predict that day, so once again I'll say they're going to lose - six out of six so far ain't bad (ooh, I should compare my success rate with teams...)

0-1
Lawro: 1-1

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Birmingham v Bolton

Birmingham have been very solid at home, meanwhile it's Bolton on the road - who, if we ignore the trip to Portsmouth, are pretty hopeless - I don't know what Lawro is on about with Birmingham injuries - they only player who's actually played this season who they've lost is Queudrue, it might be decisive now, and it's certainly bad across the season - but they've got this far without most of them, and they beat Hull away without him, and they finally have Benitez fit

1-1
Lawro: 1-2

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Blackburn v Aston Villa

Villa are making their best start to the season ever, I'd be mad not to tip them to take their counter attack to Blackburn

0-1
Lawro: 1-2

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Liverpool v Hull City

Two? three? four? Who knows, but it'll be one plus/minus whatever I say...three seems a good middle-ground, and I bet Lawro goes for that too

3-0
Lawro: 3-0 - yep...

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Stoke v Manchester United

SThe smart money is on United and why not? But I'm going to tempt fate and back a draw, Chelsea only just got past them at the Brittannia, and they're the better team (and you can get that draw at a decent 7/2 at least - very nice)

1-1
Lawro: 1-1 - What? You bastard!

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Tottenham v Burnley

Yummy, I say 3-0, as does Lawro...

Crouchy, don't let me down

3-0
Lawro: 3-0

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Wigan v Chelsea

I don't think Wigan wll put up much resistance to the flowing Chelsea, I bet Lawro says 0-2, so I'll for three!

0-3
Lawro: 0-2 - 'Lawro's predictions' should just be 'Predict Lawro'

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Fulham v Arsenal (1730 BST)

Arsenal should win this, but knowing their defence I expect even Zamora might get a goal back

1-2
Lawro: 1-2 - oh for f***'s sake

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SUNDAY

Sunderland v Wolverhampton

I foresee a demolition job here, god I'm lazy with these games

2-0
Lawro: 1-1

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Man City v West Ham

Got to be City, West Ham don't usually bring anything with them, Could only be by one goal, but I'll opt for the rout...

3-0
Lawro: 2-0

So we only disagree on 3 games...yay...and four are exactly the same, one of us will be lucky to win by a significant margin

High Praise Indeed

Well, I don't know what I did - but Dan seems to think I helped make Football Banter the 8th most popular sports blog - hmm...

Well, it's no bad thing - but now I feel I should ramp it up a bit, I don't really do much and all I really do on this blog is Beat Lawro, I don't really know what people want

Ahhh...pressure!

(Beat Lawro back soon!)

Beat Lawro week 6 Results

Burnley v Sunderland

Lawro: 2-1

Tarquin: 1-1

Result: 3-1

Lawro 1, Tarquin -1

Arsenal v Wigan

Lawro: 2-0

Tarquin: 2-0

Result: 4-0

Lawro 1, Tarquin 1

Aston Villa v Portsmouth

Lawro: 2-0

Tarquin: 3-0

Result: 2-0 (doh!)

Lawro 3, Tarquin 1


Bolton v Stoke

L: 1-1

T: 1-0

Result: 1-1

Lawro 3, Tarquin -1

Hull v Birmingham

L: 1-0

T: 0-0

Result: 0-1 - my girlfriend got that one...

Lawro -1, Tarquin -1


West Ham v Liverpool

Lawro: 1-1

Tarquin: 0-1

Result: 2-3 - for once, Liverpool come through for me

Lawro -1, Tarquin 1.5

Manchester United v Manchester City

Lawro: 2-1

Tarquin: 2-1

Result: 4-3

Lawro 1.5, Tarquin 1.5


Wolves v Fulham

Lawro: 2-1

Tarquin :0-0

Result: 2-1

Lawro 3, Tarquin -1


Everton v Blackburn

Lawro: 2-1

Tarquin: 2-0

Result: 3-0 - Oh, come on!!

Lawro 1, Tarquin 1


Chelsea v Tottenham

Lawro:2-1

Tarquin: 2-1

Result 3-0

Lawro 1, Tarquin 1


Lawro got 8 right, with 3 perfect scores = 12.5pts
Tarquin got 6 right, None perfect... = 3 pts

Ouch...

Overall that makes it 4-2 to Tarquin, and

56 played

Lawro - 33 right, 6 perfects - 23 points
Tarquin - 34 right, 6 perfects - 28 points

Thank god for goal difference is all I can say

Beat Lawro week 6

Current Standings:

46 played
Lawro - 25 right, 3 perfects - 10.5 points
Tarquin - 28 right, 6 perfects - 25 points

Burnley v Sunderland

Burnley have been good at home, picking up full points off both United and Everton, while Sunderland have shown themselves capable, but their away record is yet to materialise after only two games so it’s difficult to know how this will pan out, Burnley may hold out, or Sunderland could run rampant, I’m going to hedge on this being the first draw of the season for both sides

Lawro: 2-1

Tarquin: 1-1

Arsenal v Wigan

Arsenal may be a little tired after their European exploits but I expect them to have enough in the tank to deal with a visit from Wigan

Lawro: 2-0

T: 2-0

Aston Villa v Portsmouth

Villa may not be the best at home but I fully expect them to deal with Portsmouth, who surprisingly managed two actual goals at home to Bolton last week – but that was at home to Bolton, Pompey simply don’t have the quality to bring any sort of threat to teams like Villa – that defence is so leaky I think you should give the ball to Agbonlahor from a goal-kick and see if he can walk it in

Lawro: 2-0

T: 3-0

Bolton v Stoke

Bolton have been little fighters of late, nearly shocking Anfield and putting three past Pompey last week, Stoke tend to sit back when they travel, so if there is a goal it’ll probably be a scrappy Bolton one

L: 1-1

T: 1-0

Hull v Birmingham

Oh god, predicting Hull is never easy – and I have virtually no form to go on here, Birmingham have generally done pretty well in their two away defeats (United and Spurs) Hull meanwhile were thrashed by Spurs and just beat Bolton at home, I would venture this will be pretty tight, I would favour Hull, but I think a nil-nil

L; 1-0

T: 0-0

West Ham v Liverpool

Liverpool shouldn’t have too much pressure on them, what with their season now over and all…, but seriously – I don’t think West Ham will put up much, and if Liverpool get any sort of rhythm going they should score a few, they could be fatigued and it’ll be really dull, but I think Liverpool are slight favourites here

L: 1-1

T: 0-1

Manchester United v Manchester City

Ah…the only one we’re all interested in, how will the pretenders to the throne handle the champions? In all honesty I think they’ll do it well – United still have a lot of talent, but are against a bit more talent who are playing slightly better right now, but this could all turn on the head of a pin, and City will be missing their major threat in Adebayor so it's a very good time for United to play them, and it’s Old Trafford, so I’m going for a home win

L: 2-1

T: 2-1

Wolves v Fulham

Another tricky one, Wolves haven’t had much to work with at home, drawing with Hull, and they’ve only managed three goals out of five games, but then Fulham aren’t much on the road, as usual – I think it’s safe to say this won’t be high-scoring, Wolves the favourite

L: 2-1

T:0-0

Everton v Blackburn

Are Everton back on track? That is the question, and what better time to test that out than with a home game against Blackburn? I don’t expect much excitement, but one would hope the Toffees can create a chance or two

L: 2-1

T: 2-0

Chelsea v Tottenham

Ah, a good old London derby between the two top teams from the capital – this could be interesting, I’ve got to say I favour Chelsea in this – they’re at home and look fairly unbeatable but Tottenham will probably bring something, probably in the shape of a small pair of legs who sounds a bit like a deceased member of the Beatles

L:2-1

T: 2-1

I do believe that's called a 'drubbing'

Blackburn v Wolves
Lawro: 2-1
Tarquin: 1-0
Actual: 3-1

Lawro 1, Tarquin 1

Liverpool v Burnley
Lawro: 3-0
Tarquin: 3-0
Actual 4-0

Every frigging time!! One goal out!

Lawro 1, Tarquin 1

City v Arsenal
Lawro: 1-1
Tarquin: 1-2
Actual 4-2

Whoops, oh well - I won't actually give myself a point because Adebayor scored, the glory is enough - that, and winning money...

Lawro -1, Tarquin -1

Portsmouth v Bolton
Lawro: 0-0
Tarquin: 0-1
Actual 2-3

What was it Lawro said? - 'dull-dull' (implied)...and we a five goal thriller

Lawro -1, Tarquin 1.5

Stoke v Chelsea
Lawro: 0-2
Tarquin: 0-0
Actual 1-2

So close...94 minutes!!!

Lawro 1, Tarquin -1

Sunderland v Hull
Lawro: 2-1
Tarquin: 2-0
Actual 4-1

Lawro 1, Tarquin 1

Wigan v West Ham
Lawro: 2-1
Tarquin: 1-0
Actual 1-0

Lawro 1.5, Tarquin 3

Tottenham v Man United
Lawro: 1-1
Tarquin: 1-1
Actual 1-3

Lawro -1, Tarquin -1

Birmingham v Villa
Lawro: 1-1
Tarquin: 1-2
Actual 0-1

Lawro -1, Tarquin 1.5

Fulham v Everton
Lawro: 1-2
Tarquin: 1-0
Actual 2-1

Lawro -1, Tarquin 1.5

Lawro got 5 right, No perfect = 0.5 pts
Tarquin got 7 right, with One Perfect score = 7.5pts

Overall standings:

46 played
Lawro - 25 right, 3 perfects - 10.5 points
Tarquin - 28 right, 6 perfects - 25 points

5 rounds played - Tarquin 4-1 Lawro

Beat Lawro Returns

Standings going in to week 5:

Lawro 20, 3 perfect - 10pts
Tarquin 21, 5 perfect - 17.5 pts

*Out of 36 played

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Blackburn v Wolverhampton

Wolves will no doubt get at Blackburn but I think they'll be just a little too solid for them, I'm going for a narrow home win

Lawro: 2-1
Tarquin: 1-0

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Liverpool v Burnley

Well I managed to get Chelsea v Burnley spot on with a 3-0 last time and got a free fiver for it, so should I go for it again? I always miss Liverpool so maybe I'll stick to it

Lawro: 3-0
Tarquin: 3-0

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Man City v Arsenal

This will be interesting - two teams that should be fairly well-matched, City have yet to be really challenged and Arsenal have more quality, but that said they aren't much of a physical presence and don't always travel well, and have lost Arshavin for a few weeks...tricky - City are the punters' favourites at a reasonable 2/1 but that's because they think it's good value, not because they are more likely to win, I'll tip Arsenal with Fabregas back

But what's the betting Adebayor will score? (an extra point if he does, hehe)

Lawro: 1-1
Tarquin: 1-2

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Portsmouth v Bolton

I'm tempted by Lawro's nil-nil I must admit, but I'm inclined to think that even Bolton can net at Fratton park this year, but don't hold me to it

Lawro: 0-0
Tarquin: 0-1

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Stoke v Chelsea

Another tricky one, Chelsea will have to work hard for this and I wonder if the international break could just swing it in Stoke's favour, I'm going to stick my neck out and say Chelsea's perfect run has to end somewhere

Lawro: 0-2
Tarquin: 0-0

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Sunderland v Hull

Sunderland have just nabbed one of Hull's best defenders, and they're at home, I'm strongly backing Sunderland

Lawro: 2-1
Tarquin: 2-0

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Wigan v West Ham

West Ham don't really take much on the road, Wigan meanwhile have only taken points from their opener at Villa so I'm not expecting much here - I think if Wigan turn up then it should be a comfortable first home win

Lawro: 2-1
Tarquin: 1-0

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Tottenham v Man Utd (1730 KO)

Ah, the glamour match - I don't know what to make of this one, Spurs can attack, but their defence is still full of holes, and they've lost their string-puller Modric, while United are yet to find their form and are still possibly without Rio - tough, I think United should be slight favourites - if they keep it tight then they should be fine, but I don't see a huge goal threat, conversely if they let Lennon run around then Spurs will have a field day, so I'll stick to a draw, and probably watch as Abou Diaby pops his idiot head up and ruins me again...

Lawro: 1-1
Tarquin: 1-1

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Birmingham v Aston Villa (1200 KO)

This one's up in the air - Birmingham are solid but if Villa show up then they should be able to break them down, but then it's a local derby and anything can happen - but I'm still sticking with conventional wisdom

Lawro: 1-1
Tarquin: 1-2

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Fulham v Everton (1615 KO)

I expect a solid display from both sides - Fulham don't seem quite the side they were last season, and nor do Everton just yet, but they both seem to be settling a bit, and I wonder if we'll see anything of note here - Lawro thinks goal machine (seven whole goals last season!) Andy Johnson was a big loss, I say the loss of a bloke who couldn't hit a barn door with a cow, let alone a banjo, is no big deal - I'd rather have the good luck charm Zamora - a slight Fulham win (please...I need clean sheets)

Lawro 1-2
Tarquin 1-0

Argentina: We;re hopeful, but it ain't news

I saw this headline in respect of Argentina's plight

Argentina World Cup spot in doubt

Now, I may be getting very excited that they won't qualify, however it is merely a hope - any realistic survey of their position will show they are on course for at worst a play-off spot against a middling team from north America

Team v • d • e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Brazil	16	9	6	1	32	9	+23	33
Paraguay	16	9	3	4	22	13	+9	30
Chile	16	8	3	5	27	20	+7	27
Ecuador	16	6	5	5	21	23	−2	23
Argentina	16	6	4	6	20	19	+1	22
Uruguay	16	5	6	5	26	18	+8	21
Venezuela	16	6	3	7	22	27	−5	21
Colombia	16	5	5	6	10	14	−4	20
Bolivia	16	3	3	10	20	34	−14	12
Peru	16	2	4	10	9	32	−23	10

(play off line has disappeared - it's on 5th placed Argies)

Two games left with a one point cushion - not brilliant, certainly, but let's be realistic - Argentina's next game is at home against Peru - the team who have lost every single away game, even to Bolivia (3-0...) - they are our Andorra - ranked 91st in the world, just below Montenegro and Moldova

OK, Andorra are 195th - they are our Belarus then

Either way this is not a game to be seriously concerned over - a maximum three points will leave them going into their last game with their destiny in their own hands

Meanwhile, their biggest threats, Ecuador and Uruguay are rather fortunately playing each other in Quito - meaning that Ecuador have a pretty good chance of winning (at 15,000 feet) - this will most likely mean that the Argies will be out of Uruguay's reach anyway when they play them in the last round

Meanwhile Venezuela will be playing Paraguay and then going to Brazil - I don't see the necessary five points there, and Colombia will face Chile and Paraguay - again, a big ask

So basically not to qualify for the play-off Maradona needs to not beat Peru, failing that - Ecuador and Uruguay need to draw, then he needs to lose to Uruguay, while Ecuador also win in Chile

It sounds like the reverse of the insanity we normally need - one thing's for sure, CONMEBOL is a little too forgiving...

Don't get ahead of yourselves

Here come the 'World Beater' comments

That was in the Times - lauding how great England have been

True, they have been great - few teams have handled a perfect qualification - just look at big names France and Portugal, and Argentina - and England have scored an average of 4 goals a game, an achievement in anyone's books

They have been consistent, organised, committed, all perfectly true, I'm not going to downplay their achievements - they look like a team worthy of the finals, but that doesn't make them 'world-beaters'

The fact that Capello has created a team capable of demolishing smaller international sides and play decent football at the same time is great, we used to look so ropey and do things by a whisker - the hopelessness under McLaren surely remains at the back of all our minds, but it does not mean you are the best team in the world

Croatia are a good side, as are Ukraine - but they don't compare to Spain or Brazil, or even the Netherlands or Germany, they are just other well-managed teams with a smaller pool of talent than even us

The fact that we haven't gone into fairly dull games against Belarus, Andorra and Kazakhstan as nervous wrecks is one of Capello's greatest achievements - these are games we should win, and it's wonderful that we brushed them aside so easily - but this is just the start, this is what we should expect from a team of our stature - two years ago we were like Portugal are now, and it's not a position any decent team should be in - we have laid the foundations, we have shown we're comparable to the Dutch, Germans and Spanish in terms of qualification

But there is nothing to show that we're any better than them - against those three teams I mentioned we have beaten one, drawn one and lost one, all in the past year

True, they were friendlies, and we all know about England and friendlies - but there is no evidence to suggest that we can walk into any game as absolute favourites - we can go in as contenders, nothing more

What Capello has created is a capable team full of confidence and commitment - he has got the qualification job done at a trot, but now he must focus on the cup - which no doubt he will, and he will be under no illusions that we are world-beaters - he will take every game seriously

Cups are a different beast - games in the summer when there's no domestic footie, potentially half-a-dozen internationals within a few weeks, better opponents and all the matches are played abroad, and of course, the pressure is far higher - this all needs to be addressed

Capello took a dejected team and made them fight as the underdogs in a group mostly made up of nobodies, that's all over now (he also made good use of being able to negotiate the fixtures, with Croatia placed very strategically, and notice we have yet to go to Kiev)

The expectation (mainly from the fools who call us world-beaters) will now be back and so will the pressure, Capello will need to prepare for a new challenge - handling the group stage, and then tackling the knock-out rounds where we will hopefully play some of the top ten sides in the world, there is a lot of room for that fear to come back - fortunately I think Capello is the man to deal with our footballers' insecurities, and that is probably far more important than the individual talents of our team, which were probably slightly higher in 2006

He will no doubt remember that little scare against Ukraine - where a late Terry goal spared our blushes, we are not infallible - but you can take away from that example that even on an off day our players went for the win right to the end - that's a good mentality to have

Fortunately Capello knows a lot better than the hacks, and I have faith in him, even if I don't expect us to tear apart Spain, Brazil and the Netherlands