We're in the cup! (II)

OK, I got sidetracked and wrote too much for a note about Barry, so here is my actual post about the upcoming qualifiers

It's in the bag!!

So I may be getting a little ahead of myself, but let's face it - Andorra at home IS a win, anything less would be a sacking offence, you can be a little wary of going halfway round the world to Kazakhstan but they are pretty dire - they lost 3-1 to Belarus! England are 1/6 to win that one alone so it should be a done deal

That will put us on 21 points, 7 out of 7 with 3 left

Meanwhile we are already ahead of Croatia by 5 points, and should they draw with Ukraine (again) at home then we'll be 7 ahead with only 9 available - of course should Croatia win then the top two spots will be all but guaranteed, not that it's much different from our current position

Hence why England are 9 to 1 on to win the group - a very pointless bet unless you feel like sticking your life savings on for an 11% return?

Other big games are Belarus v Andorra, the odds of 16/1 for a win are a bit excessive considering it's Belarus, so don't bother - 10/1 for a draw tho?? You never know, also Kazakhstan travel to Ukraine - should be safe for Andriy and co.

So anyway, group six very boring, let's take a look around

One thing I always love to remember is that Portugal are under a lot of pressure and if you're looking for a good bet I recommend Denmark to win Group 1 - Portugal, despite trailing by seven points, are still regarded as second favourites at 3/1 - that's based on public perception and is too short, but equally Hungary are unlikely to threaten the Danes (and are appropriately at 16/1 despite having at least a four point lead) - meaning that Denmark at 10/11 is a very tasty bet - basically you're betting on at worst 9 points out of five games, probably less

Albania v Portugal, surely an away win is a must for the whinger's lot? But 5/11 is a bit harsh, Sweden v Denmark will be tight, that probably won't be three of the aforementioned points - Sweden v Malta isn't getting my attention

I won''t revel in Portugal's plight any longer for fear of tempting fate, into 'group ridiculous' we go - Greece (4/5) should win the group with two bankers coming up, but for the risk-taker Switzerland may be worth a punt at 6/4 - but as I say, Greece should win, tho it's not as valuable as Denmark IMO, and there's no games this round

Moving (very) swiftly on, I already said this but NI are probably boned, it should be a three horse race with Slovakia and Poland leading the Czechs, it's quite open but I think Slovakia are good for their 11/10 price tag - bit unpredictable though - they'll be notching up three points in the only match of the round so get that bet in now if you want it

Next up is group 4 - Germany and Russia guaranteed in this one, however the bookies have predictably gone for Germany as big favourites - you can get Russia at 11/4 and I think it's worth it, there's effectively one point in this and it's Russia v Germany that will decide it - the only matches right now are Azerbaijan v Wales - like I'd ever go near Wales, even if they are against a team who gave Liechtenstein a point (OK, fine - Wales should win, but don't trust that) and Finland at home to said Liechtenstein and Russia - win and a loss should be pretty safe, but the odds suck

Group 5 - Maybe get odds on Spain getting 10 wins out of 10, because this is sewn up, no matches

Group 7 - Ah, Le France - much like I do when Scotland play, back them to win - then you can't lose! In all seriousness, they are given, in my opinion - ridiculously short odds of 1/2 considering their form, so don't go near that - Serbia may not be well respected but they have a two point lead and France are anything but solid, I'll put it to you this way - France went to Austria and lost 3-1, Serbia went there and won 3-1, you can get Serbia at 2/1 and I feel that's a nice bet

In terms of matches, Serbia greet Austria and are off to the Faroes - two they should win (see?), and Lithuania play Romania - rewarding odds for a game you can expect Lithuania to win (39/19) - France aren't in action, so if Serbia win two they'll be trailing eight with two in hand - how do you think they'll handle the pressure when they go to Serbia in September, the second of two 'must-wins' in their next round? ....hehehe...

Ah group 8 - go on the Irish! (no affiliations, they just have a real chance) - Italy will win the group but if I'm going to put such a soft bet on, I'd rather it were reliable and Spanish, Ireland have one game and it's in Bulgaria - they'll need at least a draw, and I'd be inclined to back it, the only other game is Cyprus v Montenegro..right...I personally wouldn't consider Ireland taking the group, should be a play-off spot tho

On to Scotland's group - The Netherlands have won this so no point speculating, as for matches, no doubt they'll beat Iceland and make it official, Iceland also go to Macedonia - they need to win, and they probably won't, Macedonia are solid, expect Macedonia to possibly beat Norway too, should they win both the Scots are actually in trouble, also Netherlands v Norway should be a home win - maybe a double Dutch? Or a double Macedonian for the brave

And so my hot tip is for Denmark just shy of evens, but don't put your house on it

Matches to look out for

England double over Kazakhstan and Andorra
Ukraine win over Kazakhstan
Russia to win in Finland
Serbian double
Dutch double
Macedonian double??