Sunday, May 24, 2009

Beat Lawro - Final Week Results


Arsenal v Stoke 4-1
Aston Villa v Newcastle 1-0
Blackburn v West Brom 0-0
Fulham v Everton 0-2
Hull v Manchester United 0-1
Liverpool v Spurs 3-1
Man City v Bolton 1-0
Sunderland v Chelsea 2-3
West Ham v Middlesboro 2-1
Wigan v Portsmouth 1-0

Lawro got seven right, with one perfect score = 9
Tarquin got eight right = 8

........Played Correct Perfect Points
Lawro ---79 -----47------15------ 77
Tarquin --79 ----54 -----8 ------70
Dan1979 -10-----5-------0-------5

Lawro predicted 59% of results
Tarquin predicted 68%

Lawro got 19% perfect
Tarquin got 10% perfect

Well, I must admit Lawro has done well with perfect scores - but on balance it's hard to know if getting seven more results right is better or worse than seven more correct scorelines - surely results are the bread and butter? Correct scores are mostly pot luck - I am of course biased but on balance there is a reason there are systems built around this game and I should have used one, here's what would've happened:

Lawro: 51.5
Tarquin: 53.5

(that's 1 for a result, 3 for a perfect, 2 for a draw result, 1.5 for correct goal difference and -1 for the wrong 'uns)

So yeah, definitely introducing that next season - it's no guarantee I'll win or anything, but the crude system I used was horrifically weighted to perfect scores and completely negated predicting results - which is often more useful, especially for gambling purposes

So I will chalk this little test run up to a draw

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Beat Lawro - Final Week

Well, as we head into the final week, Tarquin has got 6 more correct than the strange little one, so let's face it: Lawro is in a 'Middlesbrough' position, he has of course, got more points than me unfortunately

In all honesty I do think the 3 points for a correct score is too heavily weighted against the one for a correct result, so I'll probably change it to two for next season (when I do this properly) - I lifted the scoring system off another prediction game, but they also had more points for goal differences, draws and negatives* - so I either do that (I'm too lazy) or I reduce the perfect score amount

Arsenal v Stoke 2-0
Aston Villa v Newcastle 2-0
Blackburn v West Brom 2-1
Fulham v Everton 2-1
Hull v Manchester United 1-1
Liverpool v Spurs 2-1
Man City v Bolton 2-0
Sunderland v Chelsea 0-2
West Ham v Middlesboro 2-1
Wigan v Portsmouth 2-1

Arsenal v Stoke

Can't really see why this will be anything but a comfortable win for the home side, I will foolishly go one better than Lawro


Aston Villa v Newcastle

Villa aren't all that at home, but Newcastle aren't all that - of course, this is the final day and I can certainly foresee Newcastle getting a point, but Villa should win


Blackburn v West Brom

I can only see a Blackburn win here, I'm unsure how West Brom will approach this - I expect them to be positive, and possibly without a care in the world for one last show, but they may also be dejected now they have no hope


Fulham v Everton

Both sides are hopefully in Europe now, and both deservedly - Everton are the better team, but with Fulham's strength and Everton gearing up for an FA cup final I think you can be forgiven for not expecting much out of this


Hull v Manchester United

Much talk over this one - personally I'm quite happy for United to field the under-11s if they wish - it doesn't guarantee Hull will win and United have every right to pick their own players, Hull are a difficult side to pick - will they come out fighting? Realistically they can lose, but a point would be preferable in their position and I think they'll gun for it


Liverpool v Spurs

Liverpool don't seem to be showing any signs of giving in, so on that basis I expect them to whoop a side without their major-playmaker, Lennon


Man City v Bolton

Another nothing game, I expect City to win fairly comfortably


Sunderland v Chelsea

Not much interest in this, despite it being one of the four meaningful games - Sunderland will lose, but can only go down if Newcastle and Hull win - not something to boast about, but they'll be fine, personally I'd rather have the Baggies stay up, but what do I know


West Ham v Middlesboro

Hammers...bye-bye Boro!!


Wigan v Portsmouth

Yeah, I don't expect much from Portsmouth travelling to the north-west - ugly, ugly game


*Interestingly I just worked it out according to those rules: Lawro would by now have 45, Tarquin would have 46.5 - maybe I should introduce such a scoring system

Monday, May 18, 2009

I Call Shenanigans

Manchester United v Arsenal 0-0
Bolton v Hull 1-1
Everton v West Ham 3-1
Middlesboro v Villa 1-1
Newcastle v Fulham 0-1
Stoke v Wigan 2-0
Tottenham v Man City 2-1
West Brom v Liverpool 0-2
Chelsea v Blackburn 2-0
Portsmouth v Sunderland 3-1

Lawro got seven right, with four perfect scores
Tarquin got seven right, but only one perfect score

What?? That flukey bastard, although I should've been smarter with Liverpool and gone for 0-4, because I'm always one goal out

So I'm still better at predicting results, but he's clearly got the edge on predicting scorelines, admittedly all this week's perfects were very predictable and I only went for some of mine because they were different to his - that was a mistake

........Played Correct Perfect Points
Lawro ---69 -----40------14------ 68
Tarquin --69 ----46 -----8 ------62
Dan1979 -10-----5-------0-------5

Still, I'm pretty sure I'll be getting more right over the course of the season (or 8 weeks as you call it) - which is better for betting tips

Saturday, May 16, 2009


Well, you can't say relegation ever fails to deliver - it was looking sewn up weeks ago, but as ever the form book goes out the window and teams just seem to gift perfect opportunities to each other

Newcastle rather shockingly lost to Fulham at home, I admit Fulham have been improving on the road of late, and were a bit lucky, but you expect more from a relegation threatened side

And what with Hull gaining one crucial point at Bolton, Newcastle will need to get something from Villa Park, but with Hull facing United it's definitely open to them

But of course, United have lifted the trophy and one game against Hull isn't going to interest them with a Champions League final coming up

Boro are effectively relegated, they need to beat West Ham on the road and overturn two teams with better goal differences...I'll give you a tenner if they manage it

So, it will be an interesting day next week - nobody has been relegated yet, although should West Brom fail to get a point from Liverpool they will be in a few hours

You could barely have written this better (which is more than you can say for the top end) - drama, speculation, Newcastle, goal differences, Middlesboro finally being relegated - it's all there

The main news is of course United's third successive title, and the Beeb are focused on how they did it - seriously what a load of old tripe - had Liverpool not thrown away relatively simple games at home in December and January they would've been champions, they beat United comfortably home and away and still left the door wide open - United needed to go on a massive winning run to overturn the Pool, and they let them! That's it, Liverpool handed it to them

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Beat Lawro 16/5/09

Gimp-man says:

Manchester United v Arsenal 2-1
Bolton v Hull 1-1
Everton v West Ham 2-0
Middlesboro v Villa 1-1
Newcastle v Fulham 2-1
Stoke v Wigan 2-1
Tottenham v Man City 3-1
West Brom v Liverpool 0-2
Chelsea v Blackburn 2-0
Portsmouth v Sunderland 1-1


Manchester United v Arsenal

I really don't expect too many nerves from United, one point out of six is nothing - Arsenal are certainly capable of an upset, but United should win


Bolton v Hull

I expect a nil-nil if I'm honest, but I'm going to foolishly stick my neck out and say Hull will make relegation interesting


Everton v West Ham

Should be a pretty comfortable affair for Everton


Middlesboro v Villa

Tough one, depends how both teams approach this - Villa have nothing to play for, and Boro could be dejected or determined, I vote snore draw


Newcastle v Fulham

Newcastle have it up 'em, and Fulham don't travel well, so, while a draw is conceivable (and preferable for me), I expect a Toon victory


Stoke v Wigan

Ooo, the battle for 11th...I want Stoke as high as possible to show up Lawro who said they would be rock bottom, so 25-0... or maybe not


Tottenham v Man City

Sigh, how depressing that Tottenham will probably get into Europe - you know last year Europe was 65 points, and 7th was 58 - Spurs can only get a maximum of 54, shows how mediocre this season has been..bring on Burnley - should be a straight home win


West Brom v Liverpool

Sunday's game is a little tricky - should United actually lose Liverpool may well romp home, if the title's done with then knowing Liverpool they'll collapse and hand the Albion three points (see: Fulham), but conventional wisdom tells me to stick with a Pool victory, West Brom are too feeble at the back


Chelsea v Blackburn

I don't see Blackburn bringing anything to this


Portsmouth v Sunderland

I say this every week - Sunderland are rubbish! This will be dull, and there might be a goal


Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Is Phil an excitable Geordie in disguise?

Does anyone else think Phil McNulty is somewhat hasty?

I've blogged before about his flip-flopping over the title race, but now he is calling Shearer a genius after his first win

...Against Middlesbrough! Seriously Phil, you don't get a lot worse than that - let's be honest, if you don't beat Boro at home then you're useless, the flip side is not that you are a genius for beating them, would you like to know how many points Boro have picked up on the road in 2009....that's right - two (or three if you use the last six months), only West Brom are worse, and considering the Albion have managed to beat the Boro both home and away do you really rate Middlesboro as any sort of test?

Yes it was a local derby between two relegation threatened sides, but look at this rationally - it was Newcastle's game to win, yes, they could've drawn it, but to praise Shearer for making the fairly obvious move of replacing an ineffective Owen with the other main striker and winning the match is still a long way from anything special

I'm not slating Shearer, he's obviously doing enough somewhere, but you cannot base his success on a handful of games, if they had not won this it would've been a black mark against him, but to win it is merely a sign of at least competence

I remember looking at the fixture list a few weeks ago and expecting Newcastle to have the best chance, but also having to rely on Hull and Sunderland - this is what is happening, you cannot judge Shearer on the back of six games

Monday, May 11, 2009

Beat Lawro 9/5/09 Results


Blackburn v Portsmouth 2-0
Bolton v Sunderland 0-0
Everton v Tottenham 0-0
Fulham v Aston Villa 3-1
Hull v Stoke 1-2
West Brom v Wigan 3-1
West Ham v Liverpool 0-3
Manchester United v Manchester City 2-0
Arsenal v Chelsea 1-4
Newcastle v Middlesboro 3-1

Lawro got 4 right, with one perfect score = 6 points
Tarquin got 6 right with one perfect score = 8 points
Dan got 5 right, but no perfect scores = 5 points

........Played Correct Perfect Points
Lawro ---59 -----33------10------ 53
Tarquin --59 ----39 -----7 ------53
Dan1979 -10-----5-------0-------5

That's better - beating the pillock by six already, and Dan got more right too - thus proving Lawro is completely useless and shouldn't be doing it

Friday, May 8, 2009

Beat Lawro 9/5/09

Lawro says:

Blackburn v Portsmouth 2-1
Bolton v Sunderland 1-1
Everton v Tottenham 2-1
Fulham v Aston Villa 1-2
Hull v Stoke 0-0
West Brom v Wigan 2-2
West Ham v Liverpool 1-2
Manchester United v Manchester City 2-0
Arsenal v Chelsea 1-1
Newcastle v Middlesboro 0-0

Tarquin says:

Blackburn v Portsmouth

Blackburn seem to scrape out the wins at home, always a good policy - but frankly I don't see Pompey scoring


Bolton v Sunderland

Lawro expects something out of Sunderland every week - I don't know why, they're rubbish, expect Bolton to win


Everton v Tottenham

Tough one, Everton will be vulnerable without Jags, but Tottenham don't travel too well, could be an interesting game


Fulham v Aston Villa

I don't know how much of a resurgence Villa are having, and if they're capable of beating one of the best home sides in the league, depends how the counter-attack works I guess


Hull v Stoke

Lawro doesn't think Hull can score, I feel that even though Hull are useless at home (I still wonder why when they have such good support, must be psychological) they can beat Stoke, who are now safe and don't go for it on the road - very important game tho, three points would almost clinch it - Hull will surely be up for it


West Brom v Wigan

I think West Brom could actually win this, I don't know why, maybe I'm drunk, don't put your house on it, but don't put it on Lawro's score draw either


West Ham v Liverpool

Liverpool should still be up for this, the title does look out of their hands completely, but they've still got some hope in them, and they've been scoring lots lately


Manchester United v Manchester City

Probably the third biggest game of the weekend - yup, that's how predictable the top has become - it's never a sure-fire thing with any derby, let alone the Manhester one, but I'd be a fool to not expect a United victory, even if they rest Ronaldo and co


Arsenal v Chelsea

Two sides dumped out of the Champions League but days ago, this game just oozes misery - I think Arsenal handle failure a lot better


Newcastle v Middlesboro

The game of the week, possibly even season - and it will be horrible to watch - if it's a draw they are both royally screwed, but I think Newcastle may provide and give themselves an outside chance of staying up


Monday, May 4, 2009

Beat Lawro 2/5/09 Results

Middlesboro v Man United 0-2
Chelsea v Fulham 3-1
Man City v Blackburn 3-1
Portsmouth v Arsenal 0-3
Stoke v West Ham 0-1
Tottenham v West Brom 1-0
Wigan v Bolton 0-0
Sunderland v Everton 0-2
Liverpool v Newcastle 3-0
Aston Villa v Hull 1-0

Tarquin got 8 right, with one perfect score = 10 points
Lawro got 6 right, with two perfect scores = 10 points


Told you I'd be screwed by a Liverpool result, I was kicking butt til that one

........Played Correct Perfect Points
Lawro ---49 -----29------9------ 47
Tarquin --49 ----33 -----6 ------45

sigh...still, got 4 more right than idioto