Sunday, May 24, 2009

Beat Lawro - Final Week Results

Results:

Arsenal v Stoke 4-1
Aston Villa v Newcastle 1-0
Blackburn v West Brom 0-0
Fulham v Everton 0-2
Hull v Manchester United 0-1
Liverpool v Spurs 3-1
Man City v Bolton 1-0
Sunderland v Chelsea 2-3
West Ham v Middlesboro 2-1
Wigan v Portsmouth 1-0
(NEWCASTLE AND MIDDLESBROUGH ARE RELEGATED!!)

Lawro got seven right, with one perfect score = 9
Tarquin got eight right = 8

........Played Correct Perfect Points
Lawro ---79 -----47------15------ 77
Tarquin --79 ----54 -----8 ------70
Dan1979 -10-----5-------0-------5

Lawro predicted 59% of results
Tarquin predicted 68%

Lawro got 19% perfect
Tarquin got 10% perfect

Well, I must admit Lawro has done well with perfect scores - but on balance it's hard to know if getting seven more results right is better or worse than seven more correct scorelines - surely results are the bread and butter? Correct scores are mostly pot luck - I am of course biased but on balance there is a reason there are systems built around this game and I should have used one, here's what would've happened:

Lawro: 51.5
Tarquin: 53.5

(that's 1 for a result, 3 for a perfect, 2 for a draw result, 1.5 for correct goal difference and -1 for the wrong 'uns)

So yeah, definitely introducing that next season - it's no guarantee I'll win or anything, but the crude system I used was horrifically weighted to perfect scores and completely negated predicting results - which is often more useful, especially for gambling purposes

So I will chalk this little test run up to a draw

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