Chelsea v Burnley
Lawro: 2-0
Tarquin: 3-0
Actual 3-0
Lawro 1, Tarquin 3
Blackburn v West Ham
Lawro: 2-1
Tarquin 1-0
Actual 0-0
Lawro -1, Tarquin -1
Bolton v Liverpool
Lawro: 0-2
Tarquin: 0-2
Actual: 2-3
Lawro 1, Tarquin 1
Stoke v Sunderland
Lawro: 1-1
Tarquin: 2-1
Actual 1-0
Lawro -1, Tarquin 1.5
Tottenham v Birmingham
Lawro: 3-1
Tarquin: 3-0
Actual: 2-1
Lawro 1, Tarquin 1
Wolves v Hull
Lawro: 2-1
Tarquin: 1-1
Actual 1-1
Lawro -1, Tarquin 3
Man Utd v Arsenal
Lawro: 1-1
Tarquin: 1-1
Actual: 2-1
Lawro -1, Tarquin -1
Portsmouth v Man City
Lawro: 1-2
Tarquin: 0-2
Actual: 0-1
Lawro 1.5, Tarquin 1
Everton v Wigan
Lawro: 2-0
Tarquin 1-0
Actual 2-1
Lawro 1, Tarquin 1.5
Aston Villa v Fulham
Lawro: 2-1
Tarquin: 1-0
Actual: 2-0
Lawro 1, Tarquin 1
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Lawro got 6 right, no perfect scores
Tarquin got 8 right, with 2 perfect scores
Lawro: 2.5
Tarquin: 11
Sweeeet!
That makes the overall standings thus:
Lawro 20, 3 perfect - 10pts
Tarquin 21, 5 perfect - 17.5 pts
*Out of 36 played
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Statistical blips - Lawro was lucky
Tipping rule #1 - don't get cocky
Lawro managed to beat me last week and overtake me to boot - despite me winning the first two weeks, but never fear - a point is not much
Standings as at Round 4:
Lawro 14, 3 perfect - 7.5 pts
Tarquin 13, 3 perfect - 6.5 pts
*Out of 26 played
Anyway, onwards:
Tarquin: 3-0
Tarquin 1-0
Tarquin: ditto
Tarquin: 2-1
God love Tottenham fans, only ever focus on the short-term - 3 wins and they actually think they're in Europe (when clubs like Sunderland say it it's a joke, the yids are deadly serious) - this will be win number 4, I look forward to United's visit in two weeks (actually I hope United will still have not found their feet)
Lawro: 3-1
Tarquin: 3-0
Tarquin: 1-1
Draw.
Sorry to agree with Lawro - but I do make my mind up before I even look at his predictions (I use 'I know the Score' first)
Tarquin: 1-1
Who exactly will be scoring for Pompey? Tommy Smith? Another Championship striker (seriously, go buy him now, he'll get a hat-trick!) meanwhile they sell their best defender to Everton and they have a worse line-up than Burnley, who at least have a balanced team unit. The jury is still out on City, but they've shown that having enough big names on the pitch provides chances, and I doubt if Pompey will be the team to really test them
Tarquin: 0-2
Tarquin 1-0
Tarquin: 1-0
Lawro managed to beat me last week and overtake me to boot - despite me winning the first two weeks, but never fear - a point is not much
Standings as at Round 4:
Lawro 14, 3 perfect - 7.5 pts
Tarquin 13, 3 perfect - 6.5 pts
*Out of 26 played
Anyway, onwards:
Chelsea v Burnley
 |
Burnley are doing great - but do you really think they're going to Stamford Bridge and winning? They've won two at home, and home form is what they need, they won't be doing over teams on the road (watch me eat my words...)
Lawro: 2-0
Tarquin: 3-0
Blackburn v West Ham
 |
I care, so much - If you didn't know West Ham did actually win that fight 3-1, but not that it matters, it's all about going to Blackburn and I doubt the Hammers have much to threaten the stoic Blackburn side...boring
Lawro: 2-1
Tarquin 1-0
Bolton v Liverpool
 |
Liverpool have already matched last year's defeats, and they're definitely a weaker side without Alonso - and in that way Rafa is looking as bad as Wenger, but he's always been useless at admitting his flaws...but anyway, I digress as always - I think Liverpool still have a chance at this league thing - why? Because losing a few games to good sides is better than drawing with lower teams, if they keep the pressure on sides like Bolton they'll win and be matching Chelsea and United - look at last year, whooped United and the rest of the top 6 and they still fall four points short - meanwhile United give 6 points to the Scousers and top the table - why? Because they didn't draw for 5 months...
Oh yeah...Liverpool to win, that was my roundabout way of agreeing with Lawro
Lawro: 0-2
Tarquin: ditto
Stoke v Sunderland
 |
Sunderland have improved since last year, they actually have tactics now - but do I expect them to go the Brittania and do anything? Not really, Stoke are still solid at home (and yet they buy Robert Huth??) and should win
Lawro: 1-1
Tarquin: 2-1
Tottenham v Birmingham
 |
Lawro: 3-1
Tarquin: 3-0
Wolves v Hull
 |
Hull do always enjoy an away trip, and they don't seem to be the side that collapsed last season, while Wolves have only managed an away win over Wigan so far - oh, I can't call it, could go either way, we need more draws
Tarquin: 1-1
Man Utd v Arsenal (1715 KO)
 |
Sorry to agree with Lawro - but I do make my mind up before I even look at his predictions (I use 'I know the Score' first)
Lawro: 1-1
Tarquin: 1-1
SUNDAY
Portsmouth v Man City
 |
Verdict: 1-2
Tarquin: 0-2
Everton v Wigan
 |
Surely this must be Everton's first win? - Moyes must have kicked them up the arse by now, and Lescott is now gone, it's clean break time and Wigan at home is perfect, Wigan started brightly against Villa but have since dipped - perhaps we will see if Martinez only likes it on the road.
Lawro: 2-0
Tarquin 1-0
Aston Villa v Fulham (1600 KO)
 |
Villa pulled off a stunner against Liverpool and showed the class they are capable of - their problem is going to be doing it regularly, well at least Europe is over with for them - on the one hand they were at home and won, while Fulham went away and lost (and yet Villa get knocked out, Fulham go through...freaky) so they'll be slightly fresher, but possibly on a downer
It could be a lethal performance or it could be tepid, Villa aren't usually great at home so I'll stick to a 1-0 victory over a tired Fulham
Lawro: 2-1
Tarquin: 1-0
Well that was fun - Lawro and I only really disagreed on two games, so if Stoke win and Wolves don't I'm happy - it's just a question of who lucks out with perfect scores
Post your own entries at the bottom...
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
'Celtic boss uncritical of referee'
It's really come to something when that makes a headline in football
Next up: 'Ferguson doesn't have rant at referee/players/officials/manchester city/god'
Next up: 'Ferguson doesn't have rant at referee/players/officials/manchester city/god'
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Beat Lawro 22/8/09 Results
Standings:
Lawro 6, 1 perfect -1.5pts
Tarquin 8, 2 perfect 4 points
Arsenal v Portsmouth
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-0
Actual: 4-1
Lawro 1, Tarquin 1.5
Birmingham v Stoke
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 1-0
Actual: 0-0
Lawro 2, Tarquin -1
Hull v Bolton
Lawro 1-0
Tarquin 1-1
Actual: 1-0
Lawro 3, Tarquin -1
City v Wolves
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-0
Actual 1-0
Lawro 1, Tarquin 1
Sunderland v Blackburn
Lawro 2-1
Tarquin 1-0
Actual 2-1
Lawro 3, Tarquin 1
Wigan v United
Lawro 0-2
Tarquin 0-2
Actual 0-5
Lawro 1, Tarquin 1
West Ham v Tottenham (Sunday)
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 1-2
Actual 1-2
Lawro -1, Tarquin 3
Burnley v Everton
Lawro 0-2
Tarquin 0-1
Actual 1-0
Lawro -1, Tarquin -1
Fulham v Chelsea
Lawro 1-2
Tarquin 1-1
Actual 0-2
Lawro 1, Tarquin -1
Liverpool v Villa (monday)
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-1
Actual 1-3
Lawro -1, Tarquin -1
Tarquin got a measly 5 right, One perfect score = 2.5
Lawro got 7 right, Two perfect scores = 9
New Standings:
Lawro 14, 3 perfect - 7.5 pts
Tarquin 13, 3 perfect - 6.5 pts
*Out of 26 played
Lawro 6, 1 perfect -1.5pts
Tarquin 8, 2 perfect 4 points
Arsenal v Portsmouth
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-0
Actual: 4-1
Lawro 1, Tarquin 1.5
Birmingham v Stoke
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 1-0
Actual: 0-0
Lawro 2, Tarquin -1
Hull v Bolton
Lawro 1-0
Tarquin 1-1
Actual: 1-0
Lawro 3, Tarquin -1
City v Wolves
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-0
Actual 1-0
Lawro 1, Tarquin 1
Sunderland v Blackburn
Lawro 2-1
Tarquin 1-0
Actual 2-1
Lawro 3, Tarquin 1
Wigan v United
Lawro 0-2
Tarquin 0-2
Actual 0-5
Lawro 1, Tarquin 1
West Ham v Tottenham (Sunday)
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 1-2
Actual 1-2
Lawro -1, Tarquin 3
Burnley v Everton
Lawro 0-2
Tarquin 0-1
Actual 1-0
Lawro -1, Tarquin -1
Fulham v Chelsea
Lawro 1-2
Tarquin 1-1
Actual 0-2
Lawro 1, Tarquin -1
Liverpool v Villa (monday)
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-1
Actual 1-3
Lawro -1, Tarquin -1
Tarquin got a measly 5 right, One perfect score = 2.5
Lawro got 7 right, Two perfect scores = 9
New Standings:
Lawro 14, 3 perfect - 7.5 pts
Tarquin 13, 3 perfect - 6.5 pts
*Out of 26 played
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Beat Lawro 22/8/09
Current Standings:
Lawro 6, 1 perfect -1.5pts
Tarquin 8, 2 perfect 4 points
Arsenal v Portsmouth
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-0
Surely Portsmouth are just whipping boys right now?
Birmingham v Stoke
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 1-0
I don't expect Stoke to travel any better this year than last, but this should be a pretty tough affair between two physical sides
Hull v Bolton
Lawro 1-0
Tarquin 1-1
Will Hull finally come good at home? I doubt it, they might scrape past Bolton bt as they haven't won there in nearly a year (and that was Middlesboro) I'll plump for a draw (no draws out of 16 games yet would indicate we're due for a few)
City v Wolves
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-0
City, they may not be regarded as world beaters just yet but I don't expect them to lose form for at least a month or two, I can't see Wolves getting anything here, especially as they're coming off a mid-week game and City have had a week to themselves
Sunderland v Blackburn
Lawro 2-1
Tarquin 1-0
Sticking my neck out here - I'm partly hoping Bent won't get a third goal out of three because I have yet to buy him (the various midfields needed sorting) so I'll go for a wretched display ending in a low scoring home win
Wigan v United
Lawro 0-2
Tarquin 0-2
So, United were beaten by Burnley - they did that by their goalkeeper pulling out a Jesus display and saving a penalty - fair credit to the boys, they did great, but United were still a big threat, and you would expect that out of two away games they'll come good in at least one
United did show some weakness, it's clear that the absense of match-winner Ronaldo has seriously damaged them, and Rooney alone cannot provide all the world-class talent, which is why I don't think they'll be winning the league considering how close Chelsea and Liverpool ran them last year, and they tend to start slowly, but I think they'll respond and hammer out a win at the JJB (or DW?).
West Ham v Tottenham (Sunday)
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 1-2
London derby, Harry at Upton Park...all those important, completely superstitious things that make this sort of game interesting make it impossible to predict - I would favour a Spurs win
Burnley v Everton
Lawro 0-2
Tarquin 0-1
'Can Burnley hold off the long ball into Tim Cahill?' is the question here - Everton have quite a few problems with Arteta already out, Lescott not being adequately replaced, and less-than-spectacular forwards (I give Saha 11 days) - and the 4-0 scoreline on Thursday was quite flattering - but nevertheless, Moyes will look at how to break down Burnley and should get the win
Fulham v Chelsea
Lawro 1-2
Tarquin 1-1
Can Fulham throw the obligatory spanner in the works? I hope so, Chelsea have come from behind twice in the past week, but Fulham will be the biggest test yet - Chelsea clearly have it in them and came out in the second half against Sunderland a rejuvenated side, a sure sign Ancelotti's doing a good job - Fulham need to ensure they give no quarter to them, and they need to hope Chelsea don't get too much luck
Liverpool v Villa (monday)
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-1
Difficult one, Liverpool may have torn Stoke to shreds, and it's very good that they've begun doing that in 'easy' home games that they frequently used to draw (last year the same game was 0-0) but Villa are a different kettle of fish altogether - based on the Villa we've seen so far Liverpool should be able to knock it around comfortably, but beware the famous counter-attack, Liverpool's defence isn't *that* brilliant (incidentally this was 5-0 last year)
Lawro 6, 1 perfect -1.5pts
Tarquin 8, 2 perfect 4 points
Arsenal v Portsmouth
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-0
Surely Portsmouth are just whipping boys right now?
Birmingham v Stoke
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 1-0
I don't expect Stoke to travel any better this year than last, but this should be a pretty tough affair between two physical sides
Hull v Bolton
Lawro 1-0
Tarquin 1-1
Will Hull finally come good at home? I doubt it, they might scrape past Bolton bt as they haven't won there in nearly a year (and that was Middlesboro) I'll plump for a draw (no draws out of 16 games yet would indicate we're due for a few)
City v Wolves
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-0
City, they may not be regarded as world beaters just yet but I don't expect them to lose form for at least a month or two, I can't see Wolves getting anything here, especially as they're coming off a mid-week game and City have had a week to themselves
Sunderland v Blackburn
Lawro 2-1
Tarquin 1-0
Sticking my neck out here - I'm partly hoping Bent won't get a third goal out of three because I have yet to buy him (the various midfields needed sorting) so I'll go for a wretched display ending in a low scoring home win
Wigan v United
Lawro 0-2
Tarquin 0-2
So, United were beaten by Burnley - they did that by their goalkeeper pulling out a Jesus display and saving a penalty - fair credit to the boys, they did great, but United were still a big threat, and you would expect that out of two away games they'll come good in at least one
United did show some weakness, it's clear that the absense of match-winner Ronaldo has seriously damaged them, and Rooney alone cannot provide all the world-class talent, which is why I don't think they'll be winning the league considering how close Chelsea and Liverpool ran them last year, and they tend to start slowly, but I think they'll respond and hammer out a win at the JJB (or DW?).
West Ham v Tottenham (Sunday)
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 1-2
London derby, Harry at Upton Park...all those important, completely superstitious things that make this sort of game interesting make it impossible to predict - I would favour a Spurs win
Burnley v Everton
Lawro 0-2
Tarquin 0-1
'Can Burnley hold off the long ball into Tim Cahill?' is the question here - Everton have quite a few problems with Arteta already out, Lescott not being adequately replaced, and less-than-spectacular forwards (I give Saha 11 days) - and the 4-0 scoreline on Thursday was quite flattering - but nevertheless, Moyes will look at how to break down Burnley and should get the win
Fulham v Chelsea
Lawro 1-2
Tarquin 1-1
Can Fulham throw the obligatory spanner in the works? I hope so, Chelsea have come from behind twice in the past week, but Fulham will be the biggest test yet - Chelsea clearly have it in them and came out in the second half against Sunderland a rejuvenated side, a sure sign Ancelotti's doing a good job - Fulham need to ensure they give no quarter to them, and they need to hope Chelsea don't get too much luck
Liverpool v Villa (monday)
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-1
Difficult one, Liverpool may have torn Stoke to shreds, and it's very good that they've begun doing that in 'easy' home games that they frequently used to draw (last year the same game was 0-0) but Villa are a different kettle of fish altogether - based on the Villa we've seen so far Liverpool should be able to knock it around comfortably, but beware the famous counter-attack, Liverpool's defence isn't *that* brilliant (incidentally this was 5-0 last year)
Beat Lawro 18/8/09 Results
Sunderland v Chelsea
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 0-1
Actual: 1-3
=1 point to Tarquin, -1 for Lawro
Wigan v Wolves
Lawro 2-1
Tarquin 2-0
Actual 0-1
=-1 point to Tarquin, -1 for Lawro
Birmingham v Portsmouth
Lawro 2-1
Tarquin 2-0
Actual 1-0
Nuts - Lawro predicts Pompey will actually score a goal and he gets rewarded for it!
=1 point to Tarquin, 1.5 for Lawro
Burnley v Manchester United
Lawro 0-2
Tarquin 0-1
Actual: 1-0
Hands up who saw that one coming? Shut up, Burnley fans
=-1 point to Tarquin, -1 for Lawro
Hull v Tottenham
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 1-2
Actual: 1-5
=1 point to Tarquin, -1 for Lawro
Liverpool v Stoke
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-0
Actual: 4-0
I told you! Every bloody time I'm one goal out!!
=1 point to Tarquin, 1 for Lawro
Lawro got two right
Tarquin got four right!
And so without further adieu, the results: 2 points for me, -1.5 for Lawro
Meaning that overall:
Tarquin moves to 4pts
Lawro slips down to -1.5pts
Overall the league as it stands is
Tarquin, 8 right, 2 perfect scores
Lawro 6 right, one perfect score
*after 16 games played
Think I might be winning slightly...
More Beat Lawro tomorrow!
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 0-1
Actual: 1-3
=1 point to Tarquin, -1 for Lawro
Wigan v Wolves
Lawro 2-1
Tarquin 2-0
Actual 0-1
=-1 point to Tarquin, -1 for Lawro
Birmingham v Portsmouth
Lawro 2-1
Tarquin 2-0
Actual 1-0
Nuts - Lawro predicts Pompey will actually score a goal and he gets rewarded for it!
=1 point to Tarquin, 1.5 for Lawro
Burnley v Manchester United
Lawro 0-2
Tarquin 0-1
Actual: 1-0
Hands up who saw that one coming? Shut up, Burnley fans
=-1 point to Tarquin, -1 for Lawro
Hull v Tottenham
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 1-2
Actual: 1-5
=1 point to Tarquin, -1 for Lawro
Liverpool v Stoke
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-0
Actual: 4-0
I told you! Every bloody time I'm one goal out!!
=1 point to Tarquin, 1 for Lawro
Lawro got two right
Tarquin got four right!
And so without further adieu, the results: 2 points for me, -1.5 for Lawro
Meaning that overall:
Tarquin moves to 4pts
Lawro slips down to -1.5pts
Overall the league as it stands is
Tarquin, 8 right, 2 perfect scores
Lawro 6 right, one perfect score
*after 16 games played
Think I might be winning slightly...
More Beat Lawro tomorrow!
Monday, August 17, 2009
Beat Lawro 18/8/09
Mid-week fixtures, let's go:
Sunderland v Chelsea
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 0-1
Sunderland were bright against Bolton, and Chelsea just scraped past Hull and wasted chances - could go either way, but I think the individual quality in Chelsea should shine through
Wigan v Wolves
Lawro 2-1
Tarquin 2-0
Martinez's side put Villa to the sword on Saturday and I expect the same at home against Wolves
Birmingham v Portsmouth
Lawro 2-1
Tarquin 2-0
Portsmouth aren't quite Derby level yet and they could do something here, but Birmingham are too solid and organised I think to find them a threat
Burnley v Manchester United
Lawro 0-2
Tarquin 0-1
Smart money has to be on United, even if they weren't that impressive against Birmingham - Ronaldo would be a killer here, but they still have enough quality to deal with Burnley, who are pretty one-dimensional
Hull v Tottenham
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 1-2
Two of the most unpredictable sides, how will Spurs travel? How will Hull be at home? I have no idea, Hull looked pretty solid against Chelsea, and Spurs are good at creating, so it could go either way
Liverpool v Stoke
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-0
They may have already been written off but surely they can defeat Stoke at home? Going to White Hart Lane is an altogether tougher experience, I would think Gerrard or Torres could carve something out of this
Sunderland v Chelsea
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 0-1
Sunderland were bright against Bolton, and Chelsea just scraped past Hull and wasted chances - could go either way, but I think the individual quality in Chelsea should shine through
Wigan v Wolves
Lawro 2-1
Tarquin 2-0
Martinez's side put Villa to the sword on Saturday and I expect the same at home against Wolves
Birmingham v Portsmouth
Lawro 2-1
Tarquin 2-0
Portsmouth aren't quite Derby level yet and they could do something here, but Birmingham are too solid and organised I think to find them a threat
Burnley v Manchester United
Lawro 0-2
Tarquin 0-1
Smart money has to be on United, even if they weren't that impressive against Birmingham - Ronaldo would be a killer here, but they still have enough quality to deal with Burnley, who are pretty one-dimensional
Hull v Tottenham
Lawro 1-1
Tarquin 1-2
Two of the most unpredictable sides, how will Spurs travel? How will Hull be at home? I have no idea, Hull looked pretty solid against Chelsea, and Spurs are good at creating, so it could go either way
Liverpool v Stoke
Lawro 2-0
Tarquin 3-0
They may have already been written off but surely they can defeat Stoke at home? Going to White Hart Lane is an altogether tougher experience, I would think Gerrard or Torres could carve something out of this
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Beating Lawro...with a stick
Results
Chelsea - Hull 2-1
Villa - Wigan 0-2
Blackburn - City 0-2
Bolton - Sunderland 0-1
Portsmouth - Fulham 0-1
Stoke - Burnley 2-0
Wolves - West Ham 0-2
Everton - Arsenal 1-6
United - Birmingham 1-0
Tottenham - Liverpool 2-1
Lawro got 4 right, one perfect score = zero points
Tarquin got 4 right, two perfect scores = 2 points
Not a very good week - but it's the first one, and with 6 away wins I'd dare say four is fine
Chelsea - Hull 2-1
Villa - Wigan 0-2
Blackburn - City 0-2
Bolton - Sunderland 0-1
Portsmouth - Fulham 0-1
Stoke - Burnley 2-0
Wolves - West Ham 0-2
Everton - Arsenal 1-6
United - Birmingham 1-0
Tottenham - Liverpool 2-1
Lawro got 4 right, one perfect score = zero points
Tarquin got 4 right, two perfect scores = 2 points
Not a very good week - but it's the first one, and with 6 away wins I'd dare say four is fine
Friday, August 14, 2009
He's back..
He hath returned with more foolish predictions - and that can only mean that Beat Lawro is back for it's first full year
I'll keep it brief today as I'm in a rush:
Chelsea - Hull - Lawro 2-0, Tarquin 3-0
Expect the obvious here, Hull look ropey and are unlikely to provide any threat away like they did a year ago
Villa - Wigan Lawro 2-0, Tarquin 1-0
Difficult to predict, the teams have changed considerably since May, I expect a stodgy, low-scoring affair
Blackburn - City Lawro 1-1, Tarquin 1-1
Mark Hughes returns to Ewood Park, but I doubt his team will have gelled much yet, and Big Sam will no doubt hold his ground - long ball anyone?
Bolton - Sunderland Lawro 1-1, Tarquin 1-0
Can Steve Bruce inspire the Black Cats to a win over toughies Bolton? I doubt it
Portsmouth - Fulham Lawro 0-2, Tarquin 0-1
Can Fulham actually start with an away win this year? Probably their best chance against a threadbare Pompey side
Stoke - Burnley - both 2-0
No matter the hype round Burnley, I still expect Stoke to provide a tough resistance at home, at least against the lower sides
Wolves - West Ham, Lawro 2-1, Tarquin 1-0
A false dawn for Wolves perhaps?
Everton - Arsenal, Lawro 2-1, Tarquin 1-1
May be a good opportunity for Arsenal to get this out of the way early, but I don't think they'll be quite good enough to beat a solid Everton side
United - Birmingham Lawro 2-0, Tarquin 2-0
Stick to what you know - a rather fortunate time to be playing a newly promoted side at home when half your back four are missing, you never know, there could be an upset...
Tottenham - Liverpool Lawro 1-1, Tarquin 0-1
Tottenham still look weak at the back, although Bassong has just been drafted in, you'd be forgiven for thinking this is a golden opportunity to take three points from the Lane, Gerrard is a doubt though
Scoring:
Perfect = 3pts
Correct Draw = 2pts
Correct GD = 1.5pts
Correct outcome = 1pt
Wrong utcome = -1pt
Join in below
I'll keep it brief today as I'm in a rush:
Chelsea - Hull - Lawro 2-0, Tarquin 3-0
Expect the obvious here, Hull look ropey and are unlikely to provide any threat away like they did a year ago
Villa - Wigan Lawro 2-0, Tarquin 1-0
Difficult to predict, the teams have changed considerably since May, I expect a stodgy, low-scoring affair
Blackburn - City Lawro 1-1, Tarquin 1-1
Mark Hughes returns to Ewood Park, but I doubt his team will have gelled much yet, and Big Sam will no doubt hold his ground - long ball anyone?
Bolton - Sunderland Lawro 1-1, Tarquin 1-0
Can Steve Bruce inspire the Black Cats to a win over toughies Bolton? I doubt it
Portsmouth - Fulham Lawro 0-2, Tarquin 0-1
Can Fulham actually start with an away win this year? Probably their best chance against a threadbare Pompey side
Stoke - Burnley - both 2-0
No matter the hype round Burnley, I still expect Stoke to provide a tough resistance at home, at least against the lower sides
Wolves - West Ham, Lawro 2-1, Tarquin 1-0
A false dawn for Wolves perhaps?
Everton - Arsenal, Lawro 2-1, Tarquin 1-1
May be a good opportunity for Arsenal to get this out of the way early, but I don't think they'll be quite good enough to beat a solid Everton side
United - Birmingham Lawro 2-0, Tarquin 2-0
Stick to what you know - a rather fortunate time to be playing a newly promoted side at home when half your back four are missing, you never know, there could be an upset...
Tottenham - Liverpool Lawro 1-1, Tarquin 0-1
Tottenham still look weak at the back, although Bassong has just been drafted in, you'd be forgiven for thinking this is a golden opportunity to take three points from the Lane, Gerrard is a doubt though
Scoring:
Perfect = 3pts
Correct Draw = 2pts
Correct GD = 1.5pts
Correct outcome = 1pt
Wrong utcome = -1pt
Join in below
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Fantasy Football Obsessiveness
As the premier league gets ready to return next week, with the Community shield but days away, and an England friendly on Wednesday, it is time to analyse the fantasy footie situation no end
Firstly some basics: you cannot afford a team of big names, let alone a squad of 15 - you need to find regular players at the lower end who will always guarantee at least a few points, don't pick up second string United players, because they won't get any at all...
Next, realise where your points are coming from: big name forwards cost a lot and you will soon realise that they are the worst value players - the top four scorers last year were Lampard, Gerrard, Kuyt and Vidic - the only really high scoring forward was golden boot winner Anelka with 179 points and 19 goals - not bad you might think, but forwards are creatures of form more than any others. Between Christmas and May, Anelka only scored one goal, he was wasted cash for over four months - you would've done better with the much cheaper James Beattie during that period (but Anelka was well worth it until December)
Look at all the other big name forwards: Adebayor, Drogba, RVP, Berbatov, Rooney, even Torres - all beaten by six goalkeepers, seven midfielders and five defenders, almost all of whom were cheaper, and therefore better value, you would be better off sticking with regular, if not spectacular, forwards - Kevin Davies was a star buy last season, so look for teams that can score, and ones that tend to rely on a certain player, even if he's not a superstar, and stick to two main strikers rather than three - you'll get more points packing the midfield or defence
This is mostly down to the scoring system - forwards get a mere 4 for a goal, and bugger all else - midfielders get 5 for a goal, an extra point for a clean sheet and are more likely to get assists and bonuses - hence why Lamps and Gerrard will always top the list - defenders get 6 for a goal, making high-scoring centre-backs an asset, and fullbacks can be good for assists, and they get 4 for a clean sheet, but they lose a point for every two goals that they concede, as do keepers - who also get a point for every 3 saves - making shot-stoppers handy
As such, choosing forwards requires more insight into the game, and a degree of luck - they should be your lowest priority, obviously injury comes into it, Torres still had the best rate with a goal every 123 minutes, so on those stats he may be worth it, depending on his injuries
So with those pearls of wisdom dispensed - onwards:
Goalkeepers
Pretty straightforward, you have two keepers and the price of keepers is pretty standard - only varying between 6.5 and 4 million - standard practice is to grab one of each, the expensive one being from a top side who'll keep clean sheets, and the other being a back-up first-choice from a lower team.
But if you're clever, spot a slightly cheaper keeper who will be presented with a lot of shots to save, and a reasonably decent defence - the obvious selection is last year's revelation, Mark Schwarzer - he ended up topping the league with his exploits - primarily down to the amount of saves he made - 143, whereas his big 4 rivals weren't even in the 90s - despite Van Der Sar's record amount of clean sheets, he made the fewest saves of any of the top keepers (77), and consequently ended fifth - thus proving you need a healthy balance of shots at you as well as clean sheets (and that his success was all down to Vidic) - other good names have been Howard, Given and Green, who were better value than the top 4, the latter two having a habit of making penalty saves.
There seems to be little reason to think Schwarzer will dip - he was in fine form for Australia over the summer and Fulham's defence hasn't been altered yet, of course David James went from the best 2 years ago to a liability last season, so don't be complacent. As for second choice - Jaaskelainen and Kirkland are always solid choices at 4.5 mil, or if you want a real cheapie, Sorenson at Stoke, or possibly Joe Hart, who's on loan at defensively-minded Birmingham
Defence
Now we're onto the tricky part - Vidic blew them all away last season, coupling United's consistent clean sheets with regular goals, and there's no reason to think United will suddenly become leaky - however Van Der Sar is currently out for a few months, and Vidic has a slight injury - the best bet would be to aim for another United defender - Ferdinand, who is a million cheaper than Vidic, would be the best choice - he was kept out of the points by injury last season - when he plays the full match he's worth just as much.
Other good, reliable defenders have always been Lescott and Carragher - I'd hold back on Lescott as we don't yet know if he's off to City, and considering he's the second most expensive defender I'd steer clear for now. Carra is pretty dependable at 7 million, and he beat the more expensive Terry last season - likewise Johnson already costs more than his new teammate, despite not even being top twenty last year - no doubt he'll get first team action, and more clean sheets, but whether he's worth forking out that much for is questionable - you're gambling on his assists in essence, so I'll stick to the cautious decision for now. The other expensive defender is Bosingwa - his points were all down to Scolari's use of him, so unless you see Ancelotti fully utilising the fullbacks he'll be a waste of money.
So that's your expensive, top defenders dealt with - in reality you can only have one or two of them, so you need three cheap ones - Brede Hangeland springs to mind, last year's bargain buy, we just need him to stay at Fulham. You could also opt for the other high value Fulham defenders, Hughes or Konchesky, but you may want to vary your back line for the clean sheets. Baines is a good choice, lots of assists and decent clean sheets, but he's not exactly cheap at 6.5 - other good choices are perhaps the mighty Titus Bramble at 4.5, or perhaps some Bolton defenders like Cahill or O'Brien - if you want the really cheap defenders for your bench then you are best off looking at the newly promoted teams, they're the only teams where these players get regular starts - best bet would probably be Birmingham - new signing Espinoza perhaps, but check who'll be starting.
Midfield
Ah the glamourous end - well your first choice will be between the holy 'duoity' - Lampard or Gerrard? One of these two players can currently be found in 70% of teams - it's pretty foolish to have both in your squad so you should pick just one - Lampard edged it last year by 10 points, but Gerrard has a much better rate - having played 7 games less - Lampard in fact got 11 more points from bonuses alone, and when either play you can be guaranteed they'll be in the bonuses. So in fact, Gerrard is a better prospect, assuming he's not as injury-riddled - but there are other factors, such as the loss of Alonso, and how the fixtures look, and remember you can swap the two quite easily as they cost the same. Then there is Fabregas - not quite reaching the rate of Gerrard or Lampard, but either he, or Arshavin if you wish, could be a cheaper, if riskier option in the middle - possibly even a combination could be done with some good accounting.
Other players: Kuyt put in a famously good performance last season, but I don't think many see him as that reliable - he is reliable, but last season's score has meant he's gained 2.5 million since then to make him the no.3 most expensive player - probably not worth the risk now. Then there's Barry, a steal at 8 million - but who knows what effect he'll be like at City, no doubt he'll play, but his goals, assists and bonuses are unpredictable now - he also may not be taking penalties. Likewise Ireland, who costs even more - I'm not sure where he'll be playing or if he'll be as effective now that Barry and Tevez have been brought in.
Then there's Ashley Young - a reliable young winger, but his cost makes him a debatable choice - with the loss of Barry, Villa may not be quite as strong as before and you may be better off going for his equals - Cahill or Arteta - you choose, points-wise they were almost identical last season, Cahill missing the start, and Arteta missing the second half - so who will prosper? Well Cahill tends to score more, Arteta has more assists and collected more bonus points - bit of a coin toss. While on the subject of Everton, while I don't expect Phil Neville to get to 10th this season, he still only costs 5 million, he'll be a bargain if he can get 100 points under his belt - Mr. Consistency himself. There are other wingers to consider - Valencia, Joe Cole, maybe Walcott, even Malouda, or if you want a little cheaper try Lennon, Modric, the reliable Milner or the returning Rosicky. You could even try the reliable Matt Taylor at Bolton, or the slightly riskier Danny Murphy at Fulham at a mere 6.5.
Out of that little lot you should find three or four main players - now we need a cheapie - Mascherano or Mikel could be bargains at 5 million each - they won't play every game, but they score well across the season, Mascherano may be required more this year - the other option is starters from the newly promoted sides - we're just looking for two points a game here - someone dependable.
Strikers
Onto the often over-rated section - and immediately I notice Rooney remains at the top, only behind Torres - avoid him like the plague, Rooney is not worth 11 million here, he may be a great player but his lack of goals and dropping deep make him a low scorer, the 17% of people who have picked him are fools - even if he scores a few goals early, he's not a 20-a-season man. You could argue he will be doing more without Tevez there but I doubt assists will push him high enough - the point here is not that he's bad, but that he costs 11 million, and it's too much of a risk to gamble on him drastically increasing his score - were he under 10 million he'd be decent value.
He is in fact beaten in both score and/or value by pretty much every major striker in the game - if you're going to spend that much then just get Torres. The Spaniard is the most expensive, and this time it's justified - if he keeps his scoring up, forwards are only any use if they score (or are wingers...) and they have a habit of going through troughs - obviously if he scores 30 goals this season you're laughing, but he's a risk, and never the best move you can make - you'll need at least one other consistent forward - so players like Agbonlahor, Crouch, Defoe, Carew - you may well be as just as well off with two of these guys. Kevin Davies isn't quite the steal he was, now at 7 million - but if he remains Bolton's main forward he should be useful. You'll probably want a back-up who is even cheaper - for this we either need powers of great psychic ability (such as being able to foresee Carlton Cole having a good season), or we need to go down to the new boys again, or there's always Zamora. They may not work out, but they'll be on the bench anyway - Wolves are probably your best bet - Ebanks-blake was a good scorer in the Championship, and Kevin Doyle had a good history in the league with Reading, both at 5.5mil - about the best you'll get before dipping into the barely-scoring players (which you may wish to do to save yourself half a mill)
Team by Team guide:
Arsenal
Defence: goes without saying really, but of the big four defences, Arsenal's fare the worst - and with the loss of Toure I don't see it getting much better - all players are very expensive and a poor investment, Sagna might be worth the assists if he stays fit
Midfield: Here, though, we have options - Fabregas, Walcott, Arshavin, Rosicky (out for six weeks) - although they aren't the best fit into teams so have a play - Rosicky may turn out to be good value when he's fit, Fabregas and Arshavin are probably only really good if they match Lamps and Gerrard, or you can somehow wriggle them in
Strikers: RVP and Eduardo - both good scorers, you can rely on RVP but you'll pay for it, it may be worth risking 8 mill on the returning Eddie
Aston Villa
Defence: Needs strengthening - Davies or Young will be good value if they can keep the goals out like last season but I think they'll struggle if there's no new blood in that team soon
Midfield: Only Young and Milner to consider right now - Young may be a little too pricey to be worth it now, and there isn't much hope in the Villa camp, and Milner's a bit pricey for a consistency player - they need to get the team properly sorted before I seriously consider them - although they may start brightly
Strikers: Either Agbonlahor or Carew are decent choices - but again be wary of Villa's overall performance dipping from last year
Birmingham
Defence: A place for some bargains, although I'm not sure of starters - presumably Espinoza, Johnson, Carr, Parnaby? Likewise Joe Hart looks a good cheap keeper
Midfield: Again, good for the cheap consistent players, but probably not the best choice
Strikers: Not a team built to score and their new signing, Benitez, is already injured
Blackburn
Defence: Provides some decent ballast in the forms of Warnock and Samba, they just bought Givet as well, but don't buy him...
Midfield: Not much here though, Vince Grella?? Gamst Pederson might be worth considering if you need a decent consistency player, but he'd be used in a team with quite a few expensive players as he's not the best value
Strikers: Roberts or McCarthy have made reliable back-ups before (Roberts preferable at 6 mil)
Bolton
Defence: Pretty decent - just try to find someone who plays every game (like Cahill) - keeper's decent value
Midfield: distinctly average - Matt Taylor can punch above his weight, but is a risk, otherwise Craig Gardner makes a good consistency player
Strikers: Davies, if he can keep it up
Burnley
Not a clue - lots of cheapies tho
Strikers: Maybe place a small bet on new-boy Fletcher at 5.5
Chelsea
Defence: Rock solid - Ashley Cole is half a mill cheaper than Terry and about as good, injuries tended to keep rotation going last year though - Bosingwa probably a red herring
Midfield: Lampard, but difficult to judge inconsistent players like Malouda just yet - a bit too pricey for that - Mikel may be good value though
Forwards: Have fun guessing between Drog and the Sulk - they cost the same, bit on the expensive side unless they deliver a lot
Everton
Defence - Typically solid, but loss of Lescott (?) and injuries may mean a shakey start, Baines might be worth it but he's not cheap
Midfield: Take your pick - a lot of good value players, Arteta and Cahill foremost, Neville should be excellent value - also Osman, Pienaar and Fellaini are reasonable
Strikers: Only Jo seems reliable, and he's unproven - stick to the midfield
Fulham
Defence: solid, defenders are cheap and very useful, as is keeper
Midfield: Middle of the road - I wouldn't rely on Murphy to get as good a score this season, but some reasonable 4th choices in there
Strikers: Zamora is a good, cheap back-up
Hull
Defence: looks a weak side, but Turner may be worth it at only 4.5
Midfield: I wouldn't trust them
Strikers: ditto
Liverpool
Defence: Solid, Reina a cautious choice, rotation policy and injury means Carragher is only real prospect - Johnson more expensive and a risk
Midfield: Gerrard, Kuyt may repeat last season's performance but is probably over-valued now, other players are rotated too much - Mascherano may be a good buy at only 5 mil though
Strikers: Torres is the best prospect in the league, but may not be worth the large price tag
City
Defence: Given is a good choice for keeper, back four may be unsettled for a while, unwise to test it just yet
Midfield: Again, unsure of what will happen, Ireland and Barry were previously big names but the price tags are too high for the current risk
Strikers: Unpredictable, not much value in there
United
Defence: solid, but some injuries - Ferdinand may represent the best value, also O'Shea would be excellent value if he is as regular as last season
Midfield: No bargains due to rotation, Carrick reasonable but not brilliant value, Valencia may be worth a shot - depends how he is in front of goal
Strikers: Owen represents the best opportunity here, other two are poor value - Owen is a good price but risky
Portsmouth
No, just no - but Distin may be worth following if he leaves
Stoke
Defence: Sorenson represents decent value, defence are good value as back-up
Midfield: Good value player in Delap, useful for ballast
Strikers: Fuller or Beattie may be good as second-string forward
Sunderland
Defence: Possible cheap options in the forms of Collins and Ferdinand
Midfield: Malbranque is good value for his 6 million, Richardson may be worth it (if you're a Sunderland fan)
Strikers: Kenwyne Jones is about it - not the best in his bracket
Tottenham
Defence: Avoid like the plague - the defence is a shambles, and even if Harry sorts it out, it won't be ready for a few weeks
Midfield: You might want to take a punt on Modric or Lennon improving this year, maybe even Jenas - Huddlestone can do quite well at only 5 mil, but Bentley is over-priced
Forwards: Crouch, Keane and Defoe - should be plenty of goals at White Hart Lane - Crouchy represents the best value, but Defoe will probably get more goals if you think he's worth it
West Ham
Defence: Rob Green is a good keeper, but with the departures this season how much can he do? Upson is a traditionally good performer at the 5.5 price, but again, be wary of a weakened side
Midfield: Very little of note - injuries saw a lot of rotation last season - noone reliable there
Strikers: Maybe Carlton Cole will do it again? He's their only threat so he may score again, but he has pushed up to 7 million after last season so I don't recommend him
Wigan
Defence: worth looking at - Wigan look good for the season and have a solid, reliable defence - Kirkland also worth looking at
Midfield: less so here, a lot of cheap players, but there's better out there
Strikers: Nope
Wolves
Defence: new signing Hahnemann may be a good shot-stopper, but I doubt they'll be getting many clean sheets
Midfield: Best off out of it
Strikes: Ebanks-Blake or Doyle may be a cheap option
Firstly some basics: you cannot afford a team of big names, let alone a squad of 15 - you need to find regular players at the lower end who will always guarantee at least a few points, don't pick up second string United players, because they won't get any at all...
Next, realise where your points are coming from: big name forwards cost a lot and you will soon realise that they are the worst value players - the top four scorers last year were Lampard, Gerrard, Kuyt and Vidic - the only really high scoring forward was golden boot winner Anelka with 179 points and 19 goals - not bad you might think, but forwards are creatures of form more than any others. Between Christmas and May, Anelka only scored one goal, he was wasted cash for over four months - you would've done better with the much cheaper James Beattie during that period (but Anelka was well worth it until December)
Look at all the other big name forwards: Adebayor, Drogba, RVP, Berbatov, Rooney, even Torres - all beaten by six goalkeepers, seven midfielders and five defenders, almost all of whom were cheaper, and therefore better value, you would be better off sticking with regular, if not spectacular, forwards - Kevin Davies was a star buy last season, so look for teams that can score, and ones that tend to rely on a certain player, even if he's not a superstar, and stick to two main strikers rather than three - you'll get more points packing the midfield or defence
This is mostly down to the scoring system - forwards get a mere 4 for a goal, and bugger all else - midfielders get 5 for a goal, an extra point for a clean sheet and are more likely to get assists and bonuses - hence why Lamps and Gerrard will always top the list - defenders get 6 for a goal, making high-scoring centre-backs an asset, and fullbacks can be good for assists, and they get 4 for a clean sheet, but they lose a point for every two goals that they concede, as do keepers - who also get a point for every 3 saves - making shot-stoppers handy
As such, choosing forwards requires more insight into the game, and a degree of luck - they should be your lowest priority, obviously injury comes into it, Torres still had the best rate with a goal every 123 minutes, so on those stats he may be worth it, depending on his injuries
So with those pearls of wisdom dispensed - onwards:
Goalkeepers
Pretty straightforward, you have two keepers and the price of keepers is pretty standard - only varying between 6.5 and 4 million - standard practice is to grab one of each, the expensive one being from a top side who'll keep clean sheets, and the other being a back-up first-choice from a lower team.
But if you're clever, spot a slightly cheaper keeper who will be presented with a lot of shots to save, and a reasonably decent defence - the obvious selection is last year's revelation, Mark Schwarzer - he ended up topping the league with his exploits - primarily down to the amount of saves he made - 143, whereas his big 4 rivals weren't even in the 90s - despite Van Der Sar's record amount of clean sheets, he made the fewest saves of any of the top keepers (77), and consequently ended fifth - thus proving you need a healthy balance of shots at you as well as clean sheets (and that his success was all down to Vidic) - other good names have been Howard, Given and Green, who were better value than the top 4, the latter two having a habit of making penalty saves.
There seems to be little reason to think Schwarzer will dip - he was in fine form for Australia over the summer and Fulham's defence hasn't been altered yet, of course David James went from the best 2 years ago to a liability last season, so don't be complacent. As for second choice - Jaaskelainen and Kirkland are always solid choices at 4.5 mil, or if you want a real cheapie, Sorenson at Stoke, or possibly Joe Hart, who's on loan at defensively-minded Birmingham
Defence
Now we're onto the tricky part - Vidic blew them all away last season, coupling United's consistent clean sheets with regular goals, and there's no reason to think United will suddenly become leaky - however Van Der Sar is currently out for a few months, and Vidic has a slight injury - the best bet would be to aim for another United defender - Ferdinand, who is a million cheaper than Vidic, would be the best choice - he was kept out of the points by injury last season - when he plays the full match he's worth just as much.
Other good, reliable defenders have always been Lescott and Carragher - I'd hold back on Lescott as we don't yet know if he's off to City, and considering he's the second most expensive defender I'd steer clear for now. Carra is pretty dependable at 7 million, and he beat the more expensive Terry last season - likewise Johnson already costs more than his new teammate, despite not even being top twenty last year - no doubt he'll get first team action, and more clean sheets, but whether he's worth forking out that much for is questionable - you're gambling on his assists in essence, so I'll stick to the cautious decision for now. The other expensive defender is Bosingwa - his points were all down to Scolari's use of him, so unless you see Ancelotti fully utilising the fullbacks he'll be a waste of money.
So that's your expensive, top defenders dealt with - in reality you can only have one or two of them, so you need three cheap ones - Brede Hangeland springs to mind, last year's bargain buy, we just need him to stay at Fulham. You could also opt for the other high value Fulham defenders, Hughes or Konchesky, but you may want to vary your back line for the clean sheets. Baines is a good choice, lots of assists and decent clean sheets, but he's not exactly cheap at 6.5 - other good choices are perhaps the mighty Titus Bramble at 4.5, or perhaps some Bolton defenders like Cahill or O'Brien - if you want the really cheap defenders for your bench then you are best off looking at the newly promoted teams, they're the only teams where these players get regular starts - best bet would probably be Birmingham - new signing Espinoza perhaps, but check who'll be starting.
Midfield
Ah the glamourous end - well your first choice will be between the holy 'duoity' - Lampard or Gerrard? One of these two players can currently be found in 70% of teams - it's pretty foolish to have both in your squad so you should pick just one - Lampard edged it last year by 10 points, but Gerrard has a much better rate - having played 7 games less - Lampard in fact got 11 more points from bonuses alone, and when either play you can be guaranteed they'll be in the bonuses. So in fact, Gerrard is a better prospect, assuming he's not as injury-riddled - but there are other factors, such as the loss of Alonso, and how the fixtures look, and remember you can swap the two quite easily as they cost the same. Then there is Fabregas - not quite reaching the rate of Gerrard or Lampard, but either he, or Arshavin if you wish, could be a cheaper, if riskier option in the middle - possibly even a combination could be done with some good accounting.
Other players: Kuyt put in a famously good performance last season, but I don't think many see him as that reliable - he is reliable, but last season's score has meant he's gained 2.5 million since then to make him the no.3 most expensive player - probably not worth the risk now. Then there's Barry, a steal at 8 million - but who knows what effect he'll be like at City, no doubt he'll play, but his goals, assists and bonuses are unpredictable now - he also may not be taking penalties. Likewise Ireland, who costs even more - I'm not sure where he'll be playing or if he'll be as effective now that Barry and Tevez have been brought in.
Then there's Ashley Young - a reliable young winger, but his cost makes him a debatable choice - with the loss of Barry, Villa may not be quite as strong as before and you may be better off going for his equals - Cahill or Arteta - you choose, points-wise they were almost identical last season, Cahill missing the start, and Arteta missing the second half - so who will prosper? Well Cahill tends to score more, Arteta has more assists and collected more bonus points - bit of a coin toss. While on the subject of Everton, while I don't expect Phil Neville to get to 10th this season, he still only costs 5 million, he'll be a bargain if he can get 100 points under his belt - Mr. Consistency himself. There are other wingers to consider - Valencia, Joe Cole, maybe Walcott, even Malouda, or if you want a little cheaper try Lennon, Modric, the reliable Milner or the returning Rosicky. You could even try the reliable Matt Taylor at Bolton, or the slightly riskier Danny Murphy at Fulham at a mere 6.5.
Out of that little lot you should find three or four main players - now we need a cheapie - Mascherano or Mikel could be bargains at 5 million each - they won't play every game, but they score well across the season, Mascherano may be required more this year - the other option is starters from the newly promoted sides - we're just looking for two points a game here - someone dependable.
Strikers
Onto the often over-rated section - and immediately I notice Rooney remains at the top, only behind Torres - avoid him like the plague, Rooney is not worth 11 million here, he may be a great player but his lack of goals and dropping deep make him a low scorer, the 17% of people who have picked him are fools - even if he scores a few goals early, he's not a 20-a-season man. You could argue he will be doing more without Tevez there but I doubt assists will push him high enough - the point here is not that he's bad, but that he costs 11 million, and it's too much of a risk to gamble on him drastically increasing his score - were he under 10 million he'd be decent value.
He is in fact beaten in both score and/or value by pretty much every major striker in the game - if you're going to spend that much then just get Torres. The Spaniard is the most expensive, and this time it's justified - if he keeps his scoring up, forwards are only any use if they score (or are wingers...) and they have a habit of going through troughs - obviously if he scores 30 goals this season you're laughing, but he's a risk, and never the best move you can make - you'll need at least one other consistent forward - so players like Agbonlahor, Crouch, Defoe, Carew - you may well be as just as well off with two of these guys. Kevin Davies isn't quite the steal he was, now at 7 million - but if he remains Bolton's main forward he should be useful. You'll probably want a back-up who is even cheaper - for this we either need powers of great psychic ability (such as being able to foresee Carlton Cole having a good season), or we need to go down to the new boys again, or there's always Zamora. They may not work out, but they'll be on the bench anyway - Wolves are probably your best bet - Ebanks-blake was a good scorer in the Championship, and Kevin Doyle had a good history in the league with Reading, both at 5.5mil - about the best you'll get before dipping into the barely-scoring players (which you may wish to do to save yourself half a mill)
Team by Team guide:
Arsenal
Defence: goes without saying really, but of the big four defences, Arsenal's fare the worst - and with the loss of Toure I don't see it getting much better - all players are very expensive and a poor investment, Sagna might be worth the assists if he stays fit
Midfield: Here, though, we have options - Fabregas, Walcott, Arshavin, Rosicky (out for six weeks) - although they aren't the best fit into teams so have a play - Rosicky may turn out to be good value when he's fit, Fabregas and Arshavin are probably only really good if they match Lamps and Gerrard, or you can somehow wriggle them in
Strikers: RVP and Eduardo - both good scorers, you can rely on RVP but you'll pay for it, it may be worth risking 8 mill on the returning Eddie
Aston Villa
Defence: Needs strengthening - Davies or Young will be good value if they can keep the goals out like last season but I think they'll struggle if there's no new blood in that team soon
Midfield: Only Young and Milner to consider right now - Young may be a little too pricey to be worth it now, and there isn't much hope in the Villa camp, and Milner's a bit pricey for a consistency player - they need to get the team properly sorted before I seriously consider them - although they may start brightly
Strikers: Either Agbonlahor or Carew are decent choices - but again be wary of Villa's overall performance dipping from last year
Birmingham
Defence: A place for some bargains, although I'm not sure of starters - presumably Espinoza, Johnson, Carr, Parnaby? Likewise Joe Hart looks a good cheap keeper
Midfield: Again, good for the cheap consistent players, but probably not the best choice
Strikers: Not a team built to score and their new signing, Benitez, is already injured
Blackburn
Defence: Provides some decent ballast in the forms of Warnock and Samba, they just bought Givet as well, but don't buy him...
Midfield: Not much here though, Vince Grella?? Gamst Pederson might be worth considering if you need a decent consistency player, but he'd be used in a team with quite a few expensive players as he's not the best value
Strikers: Roberts or McCarthy have made reliable back-ups before (Roberts preferable at 6 mil)
Bolton
Defence: Pretty decent - just try to find someone who plays every game (like Cahill) - keeper's decent value
Midfield: distinctly average - Matt Taylor can punch above his weight, but is a risk, otherwise Craig Gardner makes a good consistency player
Strikers: Davies, if he can keep it up
Burnley
Not a clue - lots of cheapies tho
Strikers: Maybe place a small bet on new-boy Fletcher at 5.5
Chelsea
Defence: Rock solid - Ashley Cole is half a mill cheaper than Terry and about as good, injuries tended to keep rotation going last year though - Bosingwa probably a red herring
Midfield: Lampard, but difficult to judge inconsistent players like Malouda just yet - a bit too pricey for that - Mikel may be good value though
Forwards: Have fun guessing between Drog and the Sulk - they cost the same, bit on the expensive side unless they deliver a lot
Everton
Defence - Typically solid, but loss of Lescott (?) and injuries may mean a shakey start, Baines might be worth it but he's not cheap
Midfield: Take your pick - a lot of good value players, Arteta and Cahill foremost, Neville should be excellent value - also Osman, Pienaar and Fellaini are reasonable
Strikers: Only Jo seems reliable, and he's unproven - stick to the midfield
Fulham
Defence: solid, defenders are cheap and very useful, as is keeper
Midfield: Middle of the road - I wouldn't rely on Murphy to get as good a score this season, but some reasonable 4th choices in there
Strikers: Zamora is a good, cheap back-up
Hull
Defence: looks a weak side, but Turner may be worth it at only 4.5
Midfield: I wouldn't trust them
Strikers: ditto
Liverpool
Defence: Solid, Reina a cautious choice, rotation policy and injury means Carragher is only real prospect - Johnson more expensive and a risk
Midfield: Gerrard, Kuyt may repeat last season's performance but is probably over-valued now, other players are rotated too much - Mascherano may be a good buy at only 5 mil though
Strikers: Torres is the best prospect in the league, but may not be worth the large price tag
City
Defence: Given is a good choice for keeper, back four may be unsettled for a while, unwise to test it just yet
Midfield: Again, unsure of what will happen, Ireland and Barry were previously big names but the price tags are too high for the current risk
Strikers: Unpredictable, not much value in there
United
Defence: solid, but some injuries - Ferdinand may represent the best value, also O'Shea would be excellent value if he is as regular as last season
Midfield: No bargains due to rotation, Carrick reasonable but not brilliant value, Valencia may be worth a shot - depends how he is in front of goal
Strikers: Owen represents the best opportunity here, other two are poor value - Owen is a good price but risky
Portsmouth
No, just no - but Distin may be worth following if he leaves
Stoke
Defence: Sorenson represents decent value, defence are good value as back-up
Midfield: Good value player in Delap, useful for ballast
Strikers: Fuller or Beattie may be good as second-string forward
Sunderland
Defence: Possible cheap options in the forms of Collins and Ferdinand
Midfield: Malbranque is good value for his 6 million, Richardson may be worth it (if you're a Sunderland fan)
Strikers: Kenwyne Jones is about it - not the best in his bracket
Tottenham
Defence: Avoid like the plague - the defence is a shambles, and even if Harry sorts it out, it won't be ready for a few weeks
Midfield: You might want to take a punt on Modric or Lennon improving this year, maybe even Jenas - Huddlestone can do quite well at only 5 mil, but Bentley is over-priced
Forwards: Crouch, Keane and Defoe - should be plenty of goals at White Hart Lane - Crouchy represents the best value, but Defoe will probably get more goals if you think he's worth it
West Ham
Defence: Rob Green is a good keeper, but with the departures this season how much can he do? Upson is a traditionally good performer at the 5.5 price, but again, be wary of a weakened side
Midfield: Very little of note - injuries saw a lot of rotation last season - noone reliable there
Strikers: Maybe Carlton Cole will do it again? He's their only threat so he may score again, but he has pushed up to 7 million after last season so I don't recommend him
Wigan
Defence: worth looking at - Wigan look good for the season and have a solid, reliable defence - Kirkland also worth looking at
Midfield: less so here, a lot of cheap players, but there's better out there
Strikers: Nope
Wolves
Defence: new signing Hahnemann may be a good shot-stopper, but I doubt they'll be getting many clean sheets
Midfield: Best off out of it
Strikes: Ebanks-Blake or Doyle may be a cheap option
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Season ahead preview
August is upon us, and I shall finally be returning to my football blog in earnest (transfer speculation can only interest me so far)
So I shall embark on a club by club preview, with my predictions for their fate this season
Arsenal
last season - 4th
It's been four years without even a hope of a trophy (yes, two years ago they went on an early run, but they collapsed, as we all predicted) - Arsene's reliance on the young has left his squad threadbare and without many strong characters - the loss of Adebayor and Toure has only added to his dilemma, while we all admire Wenger's philosophy on growing a team, he still hasn't formed a formidable side - he needs to flash the cash and stop being so proud, he has several players who he has brought up, but he needs some solid signings to back them up
Strengths: With Rosicky and Eduardo back this season, alongside the likes of Fabregas, Walcott, RVP and Arshavin, the Arse have no shortage of attacking talent
Weaknesses: The defence is a major concern, Arsenal need a strong leader at the back and Gallas ain't it - whether the young Belgian, Vermaelen, will be a success is open to debate, but they need to ditch Diaby, there are also rumours of Patrick Viera returning, could be a wise move
Conclusion: Arsenal still have the talent they are famous for but don't have the strength or depth at present to really challenge, if injury hits them again they have no one but themselves to blame - they should be prepared for such a likely scenario. Previously they might have been guaranteed fourth, but it really does depend on how the mini-galacticos of City perform
Prediction: 4th
Aston Villa
Last season: 6th
Much like Arsenal, Villa have talent but lack the depth to go the distance - last year they got tired in the second half of the season, and the loss of their talismanic workhorse, Barry, will undoubtedly affect them heavily. They need to keep of Agbonlahor and Young, while O'Neill desperately needs to invest in order to fight a European campaign and challenge the top 4. The purchase of Stewart Downing (who won't even play til xmas), seems a tad redundant if it's going to be the only significant purchase
Strengths: They still have bags of pace, and one of the best managers in Europe
Weaknesses: All over the pitch - the squad is paper thin, they desperately need to shore up the central defence with the loss of Knight and Laursen, obviously Barry has left a hole which needs filling, and another reliable foward wouldn't go a miss either
Conclusion: Unlikely to be going anywhere this year without any further investment from Lerner
Prediction: 7th
Birmingham City
Last Season: Championship 2nd place
Seemingly a like for like swap with the Baggies, can the Blues cling on this time? It would seem they haven't lost too much as they've come straight back up, a rock-solid defence saw them tackle the championship, and the loaning of Joe Hart will ensure they have a quality keeper - but they will need some goals this season and will need new-signing Benitez to come through for them
Strengths: A solid defence has been reinforced by a well-prepared McLeish, always the best tactic for teams trying to stay up
Weaknesses: There may not be enough players up to premier league quality, possibly needs more of a goal threat
Conclusion: Are going to be reliant on their defence to stay up, they have a good chance, but they need to take their chances against lower opposition when it comes around
Prediction: 14th
Blackburn Rovers
Last season: 15th
Arguably the loss of Santa Cruz shouldn't really matter, as he was injured most of last season and only scored 4 times, one would think if they can find a goalscorer with that many in them they'll be fine, if not spectacular
Strengths: ummm...they still have a reasonable defence
Weaknesses: Need some goals, and a bit of depth to replace the part-timers that have just left (Derbyshire, Oijer, Tugay)
Conclusion: Doubt there will be much to watch here, but they are unlikely to repeat either the chaos they had last year with Ince, nor repeat the dreams of Europe they had with Hughes, but keep an eye on what Allardyce finds on the cheap
Prediction: 12th
Bolton
Last season: 13th
Megson has bought in a variety of solid, if mediocre players to shore up the side (Knight, Robinson, Sean Davies, Ricketts) - just about sums up Bolton really, but they remain lacking up front and need some goals, and like serveral other clubs, need to find them on the cheap
Strengths: the squad is only improving, with several decent aquisitions and few departures, stability is a virtue in this game
Weaknesses: A lack of real talent and a goal threat means they won't be getting very far
Conc: It's Bolton, nobody notices Bolton
Pred: 11th
Burnley
Last Season: play-off winners
Ah, the little side that could - for Burnley, see Hull c.2008 - they will need a lot of luck and determination to stay up, and will need new signing Stephen Fletcher to provide the goods - this will, much like Hull, be dependent on keeping the team close and motivated, and we all know how close Hull came to losing it
Strengths: A close-knit championship team unit has worked for teams like Reading, Stoke and Hull in the recent past, and if they can remain as solid as they were in their various top-flight encounters last season they will have at least a chance
Weaknesses: Lack of quality really
Conclusion: Need to really punch above their weight and keep the morale high to stand a chance of staying up
Prediction: 18th
Chelsea
last season: 3rd
Chelsea have done well to keep hold of Terry, probably far more important than any transfer - and the only significant addition has been the leftie Zhirkov - so it seems little will have changed from last year, so the onus is on Ancelotti to get his team more points than United
Stengths: A stable, balanced team packed with talent
Weaknesses: Barely any, perhaps some more new blood would have been useful, and both main forwards have a tendency for the unpredictable (and diving)
Conclusion: Chelsea should be the favourites to challenge for the title, hopefully this latest managerial appointment can get the team working to its full potential - if not, well, it'll be amusing
Prediction: 1st
Everton
Last season: 5th
'Steady as she goes' is the Everton mantra - they will return once again with the same decent football from the likes of Arteta and Cahill, and even Phil Neville - but their inability to buy anything more is going to keep them out of the title race again, the only real issue is if they lose Lescott - which will need addressing
Strengths: Consistency, and good football, and a manager who knows what he's doing
Weaknesses: Lack of money - they need more depth to progress in Europe or at home, Tim Cahill can only carry them so far, should they lose Lescott they will be losing a vital piece of the puzzle (I've been hearing 'Senderos' - dear god, no)
Conclusion: Moyes may need to fix up the defence early on, but you can expect the usual from the Toffees
Prediction: 6th
Fulham
last season: 7th
Fulham have finally found some quality with Hodgson at the helm, and their solid defence is vital to that - they need to keep hold of Hangeland and they will be fine in the league - but they really need to add depth for their European adventure, and they won't be heading up the table without some better goalscorers than Zamora
Strengths: Stable squad, solid defence
Weaknesses: Thin squad and a lack of goal threat
Conclusion: Watch out for Fulham throwing spanners in the works of the big boys again, but don't expect much improvement on last year
Prediction: 9th
Hull
last season: 17th
Phil Brown really needs to fix his squad up after last season, but it would seem noone wants to go to Hull - they have offloaded some players and bought bugger-all, no doubt they will find someone - but don't hold your breath
Strengths: None that I can see...maybe Michael Turner?
Weaknesses: The team that virtually collapsed after new year is getting even weaker
Conclusion: this looks like being a long, hard season for the Tigers, they can't say they haven't been warned
Prediction: 19th
Liverpool
last season: 2nd
What with today's inevitable news that Alonso is off, Liverpool now face a massive hole in the middle - the loss of Alonso could have only been trumped by the loss of Stevie G himself - they need an influential string-puller and quick, and now they haven't even got the 'bargain' Gareth Barry to go for
I don't have a huge amount of faith in Rafa, who seems to move with all the speed of a teenager after a heavy night out - it took him years to realise the need for proper wingers and all he goes for is Glen Johnson - decent right back he may be, but if that's his best signing of the summer he's in trouble - Liverpool exceeded expectations last season, even without Torres for half of it, but they need to stop relying on Gerrard and Torres, brilliant though they are, even if the two play every game - I await with baited breath to see if Aquilani works out, and what Rafa will spend his remaining 13mil on
Strengths: Gerrard and Torres, naturally
Weaknesses: An Italian needs to fill Alonso's rather large boots, still lacking width!
Conclusion: Watch out for Rafa's spending - if he can get targets like David Silva then maybe they'll be ok, but they may be too reliant on their overworked talismans
Prediction: 3rd
Manchester City
last season: Not good enough! (10th)
City, City , City...- no doubt this year's big interest story, either they'll flop and it'll be hilarious or they'll actually be good enough to surpass Arsenal - I think the former, but Hughes is a good manager and will know what he's doing, he's bought some level-headed and committed players in Barry and Tevez, and some quality goal-scorers in Adebayor and Santa Cruz, while maintaining a decent bedrock of former players like Ireland, Richards and Dunne, but probably still needs a commanding centre-half. Also watch out for a team that has a lot of quality forwards and midfielders - sure to be some tantrums and weird tactical decisions
Stengths: Isn't it obvious?
Weaknesses: Lots of new, highly-paid stars, may not be the most stable of teams, also watch out for tetchy owners pulling the plug too quickly
Conclusion: It'll be hard to miss City this year, and their games will certainly be interesting, I don't think they'll be challenging just yet with a rag-tag collection of big names, but interesting nonetheless
Prediction: 5th
Manchester United
last season: 1st
Can they do it again? Four consecutive titles? I hope not, it's just getting depressing as the other teams simply fail to step up - the lack of Ronaldo and Tevez is the obvious elephant in the room - it may weaken them sufficiently to give Chelsea or Liverpool a real chance (although it tends to be all their own doing anyway) - but no doubt they'll be just as formiddable with Rooney, Vidic, Carrick and co. - Fergie seems to be having a bit of a play by buying Owen and testing out the young Valencia - this looks like a team in a bit of transition now, with the loss of two huge players, some new boys and the decreasing influence of Giggs and Scholes
Strengths: As ever, the omnipresent Ferguson will send out a great team every time
Weaknesses: Few, but the loss of Ronaldo and Tevez may be enough, Fergie seems to be resting on his laurels for now - as if to say 'bring it on, boys'
Conclusion: United are nowhere near indestructable, but it will be up to the other teams (primarily Liverpool and Chelsea) to prove that - they remain the most balanced, quality side in the league, but are perhaps a bit cock-sure
Prediction: 2nd
Newcastle...sorry, Portsmouth
Last season: 14th
Pompey are up sh*t creek with out a paddle, and perhaps a canoe - they've lost everyone, and unless they start putting the money from Crouchy and Johnson somewhere soon they're in deep trouble - Derby trouble
Stengths: They have a manager now!
Weaknesses: They've lost pretty much their whole first team
Conclusion: Bet on Burnley when the two meet, or perhaps even Hull
Prediction: 20th
Stoke
last season: 12th
Stoke are looking to build on last season, and keeping their giant squad together is key - they have also made a few select purchases, Whitehead being the most prominent - definitely need another forward to join up with Beattie, but otherwise little to rock the boat
Stengths: Stable squad, who average about 6'6
Weaknesses: Not many options, need some more presence up front to improve drastically
Conclusion: Unless Stoke suffer badly from second season syndrome expect more of the same
Prediction: 13th
Sunderland
last season: 16th
Looks like more of the same from the sole remaining north-east club - they may have more cash now, and Steve Bruce, but they've done little to improve on last year's pretty poor performance - bringing in young Frazer Campbell and some other cheap blokes for Cisse, Halford, Whitehead, and Chopra
Strengths: A good manager and a (hopefully) steady ship
Weaknesses: Nobody wants to go there...
Conclusion: Sunderland may not be in real trouble but they are in transition and don't look completely safe, once again they might be in the dog-fight
Prediction: 16th
Tottenham
Last season: 8th
'Arry is still working his magic, looking for more players to bring in, preferably cheeky cockneys like himself - he needs to sort out his defence, Bassong is a rumour, and no doubt he will - look out for late transfers, wildly optimistic yids and a cup run - all the usual dramas at Tottenham
Strengths: they finally have have some sort of a squad, with decent, trusted forwards
Weaknesses: defending...
Conclusion: Although last season's position of 8th was respectable they were at the top of the bottom rather than the bottom of the top - this year they will be hoping to fight it out with Villa, Everton, Fulham and City...rather than Bolton and Stoke - probably one of the more entertaining sides this year
Prediction: 8th
West Ham
last season: 9th
The Hammers are struggling for cash and have shipped a load of players, while bringing in mostly tripe, so you can't expect much from them - in fact this year they sound even more boring than Bolton, I wouldn't be surprised if they went from top 10 last year to relegation hopefuls this year
Strengths: dunno, I don't even notice West Ham any more
Weaknesses: No money and third-rate players none of us have heard of
Conclusion: Mediocrity of the highest order!
Prediction: 15th
Wigan
last season: 11th
Wigan are strangely one of the most positive outfits this season, lots of money and a new, swanky, Spanish manager - one to watch
Strengths: Some quality players
Weaknesses: It's Wigan...and that bloody pitch
Conclusion: They might be a bit more interesting to watch than usual, few worries of relegation
Prediction: 10th
Wolves
last season: Championship winners
Oh dear, Mick's back - Wolves are as bad as the Baggies at this, and they play much the same - they will probably be punished more than Birmingham, despite their better goal threat - they have invested in new players, like Halford, Doyle and Hanhemann, keen to avoid the drop once again - but whether it's enough time will tell
Strengths: decent football, some quality players
Weakness: Not enough quality, open style of play a risk
Prediction: 17th
So I shall embark on a club by club preview, with my predictions for their fate this season
Arsenal
last season - 4th
It's been four years without even a hope of a trophy (yes, two years ago they went on an early run, but they collapsed, as we all predicted) - Arsene's reliance on the young has left his squad threadbare and without many strong characters - the loss of Adebayor and Toure has only added to his dilemma, while we all admire Wenger's philosophy on growing a team, he still hasn't formed a formidable side - he needs to flash the cash and stop being so proud, he has several players who he has brought up, but he needs some solid signings to back them up
Strengths: With Rosicky and Eduardo back this season, alongside the likes of Fabregas, Walcott, RVP and Arshavin, the Arse have no shortage of attacking talent
Weaknesses: The defence is a major concern, Arsenal need a strong leader at the back and Gallas ain't it - whether the young Belgian, Vermaelen, will be a success is open to debate, but they need to ditch Diaby, there are also rumours of Patrick Viera returning, could be a wise move
Conclusion: Arsenal still have the talent they are famous for but don't have the strength or depth at present to really challenge, if injury hits them again they have no one but themselves to blame - they should be prepared for such a likely scenario. Previously they might have been guaranteed fourth, but it really does depend on how the mini-galacticos of City perform
Prediction: 4th
Aston Villa
Last season: 6th
Much like Arsenal, Villa have talent but lack the depth to go the distance - last year they got tired in the second half of the season, and the loss of their talismanic workhorse, Barry, will undoubtedly affect them heavily. They need to keep of Agbonlahor and Young, while O'Neill desperately needs to invest in order to fight a European campaign and challenge the top 4. The purchase of Stewart Downing (who won't even play til xmas), seems a tad redundant if it's going to be the only significant purchase
Strengths: They still have bags of pace, and one of the best managers in Europe
Weaknesses: All over the pitch - the squad is paper thin, they desperately need to shore up the central defence with the loss of Knight and Laursen, obviously Barry has left a hole which needs filling, and another reliable foward wouldn't go a miss either
Conclusion: Unlikely to be going anywhere this year without any further investment from Lerner
Prediction: 7th
Birmingham City
Last Season: Championship 2nd place
Seemingly a like for like swap with the Baggies, can the Blues cling on this time? It would seem they haven't lost too much as they've come straight back up, a rock-solid defence saw them tackle the championship, and the loaning of Joe Hart will ensure they have a quality keeper - but they will need some goals this season and will need new-signing Benitez to come through for them
Strengths: A solid defence has been reinforced by a well-prepared McLeish, always the best tactic for teams trying to stay up
Weaknesses: There may not be enough players up to premier league quality, possibly needs more of a goal threat
Conclusion: Are going to be reliant on their defence to stay up, they have a good chance, but they need to take their chances against lower opposition when it comes around
Prediction: 14th
Blackburn Rovers
Last season: 15th
Arguably the loss of Santa Cruz shouldn't really matter, as he was injured most of last season and only scored 4 times, one would think if they can find a goalscorer with that many in them they'll be fine, if not spectacular
Strengths: ummm...they still have a reasonable defence
Weaknesses: Need some goals, and a bit of depth to replace the part-timers that have just left (Derbyshire, Oijer, Tugay)
Conclusion: Doubt there will be much to watch here, but they are unlikely to repeat either the chaos they had last year with Ince, nor repeat the dreams of Europe they had with Hughes, but keep an eye on what Allardyce finds on the cheap
Prediction: 12th
Bolton
Last season: 13th
Megson has bought in a variety of solid, if mediocre players to shore up the side (Knight, Robinson, Sean Davies, Ricketts) - just about sums up Bolton really, but they remain lacking up front and need some goals, and like serveral other clubs, need to find them on the cheap
Strengths: the squad is only improving, with several decent aquisitions and few departures, stability is a virtue in this game
Weaknesses: A lack of real talent and a goal threat means they won't be getting very far
Conc: It's Bolton, nobody notices Bolton
Pred: 11th
Burnley
Last Season: play-off winners
Ah, the little side that could - for Burnley, see Hull c.2008 - they will need a lot of luck and determination to stay up, and will need new signing Stephen Fletcher to provide the goods - this will, much like Hull, be dependent on keeping the team close and motivated, and we all know how close Hull came to losing it
Strengths: A close-knit championship team unit has worked for teams like Reading, Stoke and Hull in the recent past, and if they can remain as solid as they were in their various top-flight encounters last season they will have at least a chance
Weaknesses: Lack of quality really
Conclusion: Need to really punch above their weight and keep the morale high to stand a chance of staying up
Prediction: 18th
Chelsea
last season: 3rd
Chelsea have done well to keep hold of Terry, probably far more important than any transfer - and the only significant addition has been the leftie Zhirkov - so it seems little will have changed from last year, so the onus is on Ancelotti to get his team more points than United
Stengths: A stable, balanced team packed with talent
Weaknesses: Barely any, perhaps some more new blood would have been useful, and both main forwards have a tendency for the unpredictable (and diving)
Conclusion: Chelsea should be the favourites to challenge for the title, hopefully this latest managerial appointment can get the team working to its full potential - if not, well, it'll be amusing
Prediction: 1st
Everton
Last season: 5th
'Steady as she goes' is the Everton mantra - they will return once again with the same decent football from the likes of Arteta and Cahill, and even Phil Neville - but their inability to buy anything more is going to keep them out of the title race again, the only real issue is if they lose Lescott - which will need addressing
Strengths: Consistency, and good football, and a manager who knows what he's doing
Weaknesses: Lack of money - they need more depth to progress in Europe or at home, Tim Cahill can only carry them so far, should they lose Lescott they will be losing a vital piece of the puzzle (I've been hearing 'Senderos' - dear god, no)
Conclusion: Moyes may need to fix up the defence early on, but you can expect the usual from the Toffees
Prediction: 6th
Fulham
last season: 7th
Fulham have finally found some quality with Hodgson at the helm, and their solid defence is vital to that - they need to keep hold of Hangeland and they will be fine in the league - but they really need to add depth for their European adventure, and they won't be heading up the table without some better goalscorers than Zamora
Strengths: Stable squad, solid defence
Weaknesses: Thin squad and a lack of goal threat
Conclusion: Watch out for Fulham throwing spanners in the works of the big boys again, but don't expect much improvement on last year
Prediction: 9th
Hull
last season: 17th
Phil Brown really needs to fix his squad up after last season, but it would seem noone wants to go to Hull - they have offloaded some players and bought bugger-all, no doubt they will find someone - but don't hold your breath
Strengths: None that I can see...maybe Michael Turner?
Weaknesses: The team that virtually collapsed after new year is getting even weaker
Conclusion: this looks like being a long, hard season for the Tigers, they can't say they haven't been warned
Prediction: 19th
Liverpool
last season: 2nd
What with today's inevitable news that Alonso is off, Liverpool now face a massive hole in the middle - the loss of Alonso could have only been trumped by the loss of Stevie G himself - they need an influential string-puller and quick, and now they haven't even got the 'bargain' Gareth Barry to go for
I don't have a huge amount of faith in Rafa, who seems to move with all the speed of a teenager after a heavy night out - it took him years to realise the need for proper wingers and all he goes for is Glen Johnson - decent right back he may be, but if that's his best signing of the summer he's in trouble - Liverpool exceeded expectations last season, even without Torres for half of it, but they need to stop relying on Gerrard and Torres, brilliant though they are, even if the two play every game - I await with baited breath to see if Aquilani works out, and what Rafa will spend his remaining 13mil on
Strengths: Gerrard and Torres, naturally
Weaknesses: An Italian needs to fill Alonso's rather large boots, still lacking width!
Conclusion: Watch out for Rafa's spending - if he can get targets like David Silva then maybe they'll be ok, but they may be too reliant on their overworked talismans
Prediction: 3rd
Manchester City
last season: Not good enough! (10th)
City, City , City...- no doubt this year's big interest story, either they'll flop and it'll be hilarious or they'll actually be good enough to surpass Arsenal - I think the former, but Hughes is a good manager and will know what he's doing, he's bought some level-headed and committed players in Barry and Tevez, and some quality goal-scorers in Adebayor and Santa Cruz, while maintaining a decent bedrock of former players like Ireland, Richards and Dunne, but probably still needs a commanding centre-half. Also watch out for a team that has a lot of quality forwards and midfielders - sure to be some tantrums and weird tactical decisions
Stengths: Isn't it obvious?
Weaknesses: Lots of new, highly-paid stars, may not be the most stable of teams, also watch out for tetchy owners pulling the plug too quickly
Conclusion: It'll be hard to miss City this year, and their games will certainly be interesting, I don't think they'll be challenging just yet with a rag-tag collection of big names, but interesting nonetheless
Prediction: 5th
Manchester United
last season: 1st
Can they do it again? Four consecutive titles? I hope not, it's just getting depressing as the other teams simply fail to step up - the lack of Ronaldo and Tevez is the obvious elephant in the room - it may weaken them sufficiently to give Chelsea or Liverpool a real chance (although it tends to be all their own doing anyway) - but no doubt they'll be just as formiddable with Rooney, Vidic, Carrick and co. - Fergie seems to be having a bit of a play by buying Owen and testing out the young Valencia - this looks like a team in a bit of transition now, with the loss of two huge players, some new boys and the decreasing influence of Giggs and Scholes
Strengths: As ever, the omnipresent Ferguson will send out a great team every time
Weaknesses: Few, but the loss of Ronaldo and Tevez may be enough, Fergie seems to be resting on his laurels for now - as if to say 'bring it on, boys'
Conclusion: United are nowhere near indestructable, but it will be up to the other teams (primarily Liverpool and Chelsea) to prove that - they remain the most balanced, quality side in the league, but are perhaps a bit cock-sure
Prediction: 2nd
Newcastle...sorry, Portsmouth
Last season: 14th
Pompey are up sh*t creek with out a paddle, and perhaps a canoe - they've lost everyone, and unless they start putting the money from Crouchy and Johnson somewhere soon they're in deep trouble - Derby trouble
Stengths: They have a manager now!
Weaknesses: They've lost pretty much their whole first team
Conclusion: Bet on Burnley when the two meet, or perhaps even Hull
Prediction: 20th
Stoke
last season: 12th
Stoke are looking to build on last season, and keeping their giant squad together is key - they have also made a few select purchases, Whitehead being the most prominent - definitely need another forward to join up with Beattie, but otherwise little to rock the boat
Stengths: Stable squad, who average about 6'6
Weaknesses: Not many options, need some more presence up front to improve drastically
Conclusion: Unless Stoke suffer badly from second season syndrome expect more of the same
Prediction: 13th
Sunderland
last season: 16th
Looks like more of the same from the sole remaining north-east club - they may have more cash now, and Steve Bruce, but they've done little to improve on last year's pretty poor performance - bringing in young Frazer Campbell and some other cheap blokes for Cisse, Halford, Whitehead, and Chopra
Strengths: A good manager and a (hopefully) steady ship
Weaknesses: Nobody wants to go there...
Conclusion: Sunderland may not be in real trouble but they are in transition and don't look completely safe, once again they might be in the dog-fight
Prediction: 16th
Tottenham
Last season: 8th
'Arry is still working his magic, looking for more players to bring in, preferably cheeky cockneys like himself - he needs to sort out his defence, Bassong is a rumour, and no doubt he will - look out for late transfers, wildly optimistic yids and a cup run - all the usual dramas at Tottenham
Strengths: they finally have have some sort of a squad, with decent, trusted forwards
Weaknesses: defending...
Conclusion: Although last season's position of 8th was respectable they were at the top of the bottom rather than the bottom of the top - this year they will be hoping to fight it out with Villa, Everton, Fulham and City...rather than Bolton and Stoke - probably one of the more entertaining sides this year
Prediction: 8th
West Ham
last season: 9th
The Hammers are struggling for cash and have shipped a load of players, while bringing in mostly tripe, so you can't expect much from them - in fact this year they sound even more boring than Bolton, I wouldn't be surprised if they went from top 10 last year to relegation hopefuls this year
Strengths: dunno, I don't even notice West Ham any more
Weaknesses: No money and third-rate players none of us have heard of
Conclusion: Mediocrity of the highest order!
Prediction: 15th
Wigan
last season: 11th
Wigan are strangely one of the most positive outfits this season, lots of money and a new, swanky, Spanish manager - one to watch
Strengths: Some quality players
Weaknesses: It's Wigan...and that bloody pitch
Conclusion: They might be a bit more interesting to watch than usual, few worries of relegation
Prediction: 10th
Wolves
last season: Championship winners
Oh dear, Mick's back - Wolves are as bad as the Baggies at this, and they play much the same - they will probably be punished more than Birmingham, despite their better goal threat - they have invested in new players, like Halford, Doyle and Hanhemann, keen to avoid the drop once again - but whether it's enough time will tell
Strengths: decent football, some quality players
Weakness: Not enough quality, open style of play a risk
Prediction: 17th
Mihir Bose quits
Can't say I didn't feel a little happy at the news that Mihir Bose has left the Beeb
I've always felt he contributed little to the sport side and was quite useless - occasionally there was a little nugget of information, but most of the time he was reporting the obvious or going off on some weird tangent about sport business
The guy was an investigative reporter who focused on the 'inside sport' (i.e. it's politics) recruited as a 'Sports Editor' - a new role, which I think, as with almost all modern creations, was poorly-thought out
What was the purpose of a sports editor? I don't think many thought Bose's ramblings into the political aspect of a wide variety of sports really lived up to that title - I think they expected more about the BBC's coverage of sport and a bit more prominence from the man named 'editor' - more akin to Nick Robinson or Robert Peston
I think he would've been better off in a specialised role - something to do with 'sport politics' or something, he already was into a very specialised area of sport in the Telegraph so to be given a remit merely for 'sport' seemed a bit daft
Bose was also quite clearly a cricket fan, and his interest in football seemed rather academic - it was a bad idea to open up his blog to the fanatical hordes in the football section who expect a lot more attention, again, he should've stuck to being a business reporter, or even to the cricket side
I think they were just asking for trouble, providing his content to fans who were there for rugged analysis of matches and transfers (the Ronaldo one was decent), but instead usually found a rather dry piece about the olympic museum
I think people are somewhat petty and like the same thing - they don't like you randomly dipping into football one week and then something more obscure that they don't want to read the next - like I said, this image wasn't helped by being called 'sports editor', which implies a good knowledge of all things sport - whereas Bose seemed more like a roving reporter more interested in back-room deals than the big stories
It was perhaps a very simple oversight - it's amazing how important a title can be, but I have to ultimately blame the BBC management for the rather poor performance we got
I've always felt he contributed little to the sport side and was quite useless - occasionally there was a little nugget of information, but most of the time he was reporting the obvious or going off on some weird tangent about sport business
The guy was an investigative reporter who focused on the 'inside sport' (i.e. it's politics) recruited as a 'Sports Editor' - a new role, which I think, as with almost all modern creations, was poorly-thought out
What was the purpose of a sports editor? I don't think many thought Bose's ramblings into the political aspect of a wide variety of sports really lived up to that title - I think they expected more about the BBC's coverage of sport and a bit more prominence from the man named 'editor' - more akin to Nick Robinson or Robert Peston
I think he would've been better off in a specialised role - something to do with 'sport politics' or something, he already was into a very specialised area of sport in the Telegraph so to be given a remit merely for 'sport' seemed a bit daft
Bose was also quite clearly a cricket fan, and his interest in football seemed rather academic - it was a bad idea to open up his blog to the fanatical hordes in the football section who expect a lot more attention, again, he should've stuck to being a business reporter, or even to the cricket side
I think they were just asking for trouble, providing his content to fans who were there for rugged analysis of matches and transfers (the Ronaldo one was decent), but instead usually found a rather dry piece about the olympic museum
I think people are somewhat petty and like the same thing - they don't like you randomly dipping into football one week and then something more obscure that they don't want to read the next - like I said, this image wasn't helped by being called 'sports editor', which implies a good knowledge of all things sport - whereas Bose seemed more like a roving reporter more interested in back-room deals than the big stories
It was perhaps a very simple oversight - it's amazing how important a title can be, but I have to ultimately blame the BBC management for the rather poor performance we got
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