Fantasy Football Obsessiveness

As the premier league gets ready to return next week, with the Community shield but days away, and an England friendly on Wednesday, it is time to analyse the fantasy footie situation no end

Firstly some basics: you cannot afford a team of big names, let alone a squad of 15 - you need to find regular players at the lower end who will always guarantee at least a few points, don't pick up second string United players, because they won't get any at all...

Next, realise where your points are coming from: big name forwards cost a lot and you will soon realise that they are the worst value players - the top four scorers last year were Lampard, Gerrard, Kuyt and Vidic - the only really high scoring forward was golden boot winner Anelka with 179 points and 19 goals - not bad you might think, but forwards are creatures of form more than any others. Between Christmas and May, Anelka only scored one goal, he was wasted cash for over four months - you would've done better with the much cheaper James Beattie during that period (but Anelka was well worth it until December)

Look at all the other big name forwards: Adebayor, Drogba, RVP, Berbatov, Rooney, even Torres - all beaten by six goalkeepers, seven midfielders and five defenders, almost all of whom were cheaper, and therefore better value, you would be better off sticking with regular, if not spectacular, forwards - Kevin Davies was a star buy last season, so look for teams that can score, and ones that tend to rely on a certain player, even if he's not a superstar, and stick to two main strikers rather than three - you'll get more points packing the midfield or defence

This is mostly down to the scoring system - forwards get a mere 4 for a goal, and bugger all else - midfielders get 5 for a goal, an extra point for a clean sheet and are more likely to get assists and bonuses - hence why Lamps and Gerrard will always top the list - defenders get 6 for a goal, making high-scoring centre-backs an asset, and fullbacks can be good for assists, and they get 4 for a clean sheet, but they lose a point for every two goals that they concede, as do keepers - who also get a point for every 3 saves - making shot-stoppers handy

As such, choosing forwards requires more insight into the game, and a degree of luck - they should be your lowest priority, obviously injury comes into it, Torres still had the best rate with a goal every 123 minutes, so on those stats he may be worth it, depending on his injuries

So with those pearls of wisdom dispensed - onwards:

Goalkeepers

Pretty straightforward, you have two keepers and the price of keepers is pretty standard - only varying between 6.5 and 4 million - standard practice is to grab one of each, the expensive one being from a top side who'll keep clean sheets, and the other being a back-up first-choice from a lower team.

But if you're clever, spot a slightly cheaper keeper who will be presented with a lot of shots to save, and a reasonably decent defence - the obvious selection is last year's revelation, Mark Schwarzer - he ended up topping the league with his exploits - primarily down to the amount of saves he made - 143, whereas his big 4 rivals weren't even in the 90s - despite Van Der Sar's record amount of clean sheets, he made the fewest saves of any of the top keepers (77), and consequently ended fifth - thus proving you need a healthy balance of shots at you as well as clean sheets (and that his success was all down to Vidic) - other good names have been Howard, Given and Green, who were better value than the top 4, the latter two having a habit of making penalty saves.

There seems to be little reason to think Schwarzer will dip - he was in fine form for Australia over the summer and Fulham's defence hasn't been altered yet, of course David James went from the best 2 years ago to a liability last season, so don't be complacent. As for second choice - Jaaskelainen and Kirkland are always solid choices at 4.5 mil, or if you want a real cheapie, Sorenson at Stoke, or possibly Joe Hart, who's on loan at defensively-minded Birmingham

Defence

Now we're onto the tricky part - Vidic blew them all away last season, coupling United's consistent clean sheets with regular goals, and there's no reason to think United will suddenly become leaky - however Van Der Sar is currently out for a few months, and Vidic has a slight injury - the best bet would be to aim for another United defender - Ferdinand, who is a million cheaper than Vidic, would be the best choice - he was kept out of the points by injury last season - when he plays the full match he's worth just as much.

Other good, reliable defenders have always been Lescott and Carragher - I'd hold back on Lescott as we don't yet know if he's off to City, and considering he's the second most expensive defender I'd steer clear for now. Carra is pretty dependable at 7 million, and he beat the more expensive Terry last season - likewise Johnson already costs more than his new teammate, despite not even being top twenty last year - no doubt he'll get first team action, and more clean sheets, but whether he's worth forking out that much for is questionable - you're gambling on his assists in essence, so I'll stick to the cautious decision for now. The other expensive defender is Bosingwa - his points were all down to Scolari's use of him, so unless you see Ancelotti fully utilising the fullbacks he'll be a waste of money.

So that's your expensive, top defenders dealt with - in reality you can only have one or two of them, so you need three cheap ones - Brede Hangeland springs to mind, last year's bargain buy, we just need him to stay at Fulham. You could also opt for the other high value Fulham defenders, Hughes or Konchesky, but you may want to vary your back line for the clean sheets. Baines is a good choice, lots of assists and decent clean sheets, but he's not exactly cheap at 6.5 - other good choices are perhaps the mighty Titus Bramble at 4.5, or perhaps some Bolton defenders like Cahill or O'Brien - if you want the really cheap defenders for your bench then you are best off looking at the newly promoted teams, they're the only teams where these players get regular starts - best bet would probably be Birmingham - new signing Espinoza perhaps, but check who'll be starting.

Midfield

Ah the glamourous end - well your first choice will be between the holy 'duoity' - Lampard or Gerrard? One of these two players can currently be found in 70% of teams - it's pretty foolish to have both in your squad so you should pick just one - Lampard edged it last year by 10 points, but Gerrard has a much better rate - having played 7 games less - Lampard in fact got 11 more points from bonuses alone, and when either play you can be guaranteed they'll be in the bonuses. So in fact, Gerrard is a better prospect, assuming he's not as injury-riddled - but there are other factors, such as the loss of Alonso, and how the fixtures look, and remember you can swap the two quite easily as they cost the same. Then there is Fabregas - not quite reaching the rate of Gerrard or Lampard, but either he, or Arshavin if you wish, could be a cheaper, if riskier option in the middle - possibly even a combination could be done with some good accounting.

Other players: Kuyt put in a famously good performance last season, but I don't think many see him as that reliable - he is reliable, but last season's score has meant he's gained 2.5 million since then to make him the no.3 most expensive player - probably not worth the risk now. Then there's Barry, a steal at 8 million - but who knows what effect he'll be like at City, no doubt he'll play, but his goals, assists and bonuses are unpredictable now - he also may not be taking penalties. Likewise Ireland, who costs even more - I'm not sure where he'll be playing or if he'll be as effective now that Barry and Tevez have been brought in.

Then there's Ashley Young - a reliable young winger, but his cost makes him a debatable choice - with the loss of Barry, Villa may not be quite as strong as before and you may be better off going for his equals - Cahill or Arteta - you choose, points-wise they were almost identical last season, Cahill missing the start, and Arteta missing the second half - so who will prosper? Well Cahill tends to score more, Arteta has more assists and collected more bonus points - bit of a coin toss. While on the subject of Everton, while I don't expect Phil Neville to get to 10th this season, he still only costs 5 million, he'll be a bargain if he can get 100 points under his belt - Mr. Consistency himself. There are other wingers to consider - Valencia, Joe Cole, maybe Walcott, even Malouda, or if you want a little cheaper try Lennon, Modric, the reliable Milner or the returning Rosicky. You could even try the reliable Matt Taylor at Bolton, or the slightly riskier Danny Murphy at Fulham at a mere 6.5.

Out of that little lot you should find three or four main players - now we need a cheapie - Mascherano or Mikel could be bargains at 5 million each - they won't play every game, but they score well across the season, Mascherano may be required more this year - the other option is starters from the newly promoted sides - we're just looking for two points a game here - someone dependable.

Strikers

Onto the often over-rated section - and immediately I notice Rooney remains at the top, only behind Torres - avoid him like the plague, Rooney is not worth 11 million here, he may be a great player but his lack of goals and dropping deep make him a low scorer, the 17% of people who have picked him are fools - even if he scores a few goals early, he's not a 20-a-season man. You could argue he will be doing more without Tevez there but I doubt assists will push him high enough - the point here is not that he's bad, but that he costs 11 million, and it's too much of a risk to gamble on him drastically increasing his score - were he under 10 million he'd be decent value.

He is in fact beaten in both score and/or value by pretty much every major striker in the game - if you're going to spend that much then just get Torres. The Spaniard is the most expensive, and this time it's justified - if he keeps his scoring up, forwards are only any use if they score (or are wingers...) and they have a habit of going through troughs - obviously if he scores 30 goals this season you're laughing, but he's a risk, and never the best move you can make - you'll need at least one other consistent forward - so players like Agbonlahor, Crouch, Defoe, Carew - you may well be as just as well off with two of these guys. Kevin Davies isn't quite the steal he was, now at 7 million - but if he remains Bolton's main forward he should be useful. You'll probably want a back-up who is even cheaper - for this we either need powers of great psychic ability (such as being able to foresee Carlton Cole having a good season), or we need to go down to the new boys again, or there's always Zamora. They may not work out, but they'll be on the bench anyway - Wolves are probably your best bet - Ebanks-blake was a good scorer in the Championship, and Kevin Doyle had a good history in the league with Reading, both at 5.5mil - about the best you'll get before dipping into the barely-scoring players (which you may wish to do to save yourself half a mill)

Team by Team guide:

Arsenal
Defence: goes without saying really, but of the big four defences, Arsenal's fare the worst - and with the loss of Toure I don't see it getting much better - all players are very expensive and a poor investment, Sagna might be worth the assists if he stays fit
Midfield: Here, though, we have options - Fabregas, Walcott, Arshavin, Rosicky (out for six weeks) - although they aren't the best fit into teams so have a play - Rosicky may turn out to be good value when he's fit, Fabregas and Arshavin are probably only really good if they match Lamps and Gerrard, or you can somehow wriggle them in
Strikers: RVP and Eduardo - both good scorers, you can rely on RVP but you'll pay for it, it may be worth risking 8 mill on the returning Eddie

Aston Villa
Defence: Needs strengthening - Davies or Young will be good value if they can keep the goals out like last season but I think they'll struggle if there's no new blood in that team soon
Midfield: Only Young and Milner to consider right now - Young may be a little too pricey to be worth it now, and there isn't much hope in the Villa camp, and Milner's a bit pricey for a consistency player - they need to get the team properly sorted before I seriously consider them - although they may start brightly
Strikers: Either Agbonlahor or Carew are decent choices - but again be wary of Villa's overall performance dipping from last year

Birmingham
Defence: A place for some bargains, although I'm not sure of starters - presumably Espinoza, Johnson, Carr, Parnaby? Likewise Joe Hart looks a good cheap keeper
Midfield: Again, good for the cheap consistent players, but probably not the best choice
Strikers: Not a team built to score and their new signing, Benitez, is already injured

Blackburn
Defence: Provides some decent ballast in the forms of Warnock and Samba, they just bought Givet as well, but don't buy him...
Midfield: Not much here though, Vince Grella?? Gamst Pederson might be worth considering if you need a decent consistency player, but he'd be used in a team with quite a few expensive players as he's not the best value
Strikers: Roberts or McCarthy have made reliable back-ups before (Roberts preferable at 6 mil)

Bolton
Defence: Pretty decent - just try to find someone who plays every game (like Cahill) - keeper's decent value
Midfield: distinctly average - Matt Taylor can punch above his weight, but is a risk, otherwise Craig Gardner makes a good consistency player
Strikers: Davies, if he can keep it up

Burnley
Not a clue - lots of cheapies tho
Strikers: Maybe place a small bet on new-boy Fletcher at 5.5

Chelsea
Defence: Rock solid - Ashley Cole is half a mill cheaper than Terry and about as good, injuries tended to keep rotation going last year though - Bosingwa probably a red herring
Midfield: Lampard, but difficult to judge inconsistent players like Malouda just yet - a bit too pricey for that - Mikel may be good value though
Forwards: Have fun guessing between Drog and the Sulk - they cost the same, bit on the expensive side unless they deliver a lot

Everton
Defence - Typically solid, but loss of Lescott (?) and injuries may mean a shakey start, Baines might be worth it but he's not cheap
Midfield: Take your pick - a lot of good value players, Arteta and Cahill foremost, Neville should be excellent value - also Osman, Pienaar and Fellaini are reasonable
Strikers: Only Jo seems reliable, and he's unproven - stick to the midfield

Fulham
Defence: solid, defenders are cheap and very useful, as is keeper
Midfield: Middle of the road - I wouldn't rely on Murphy to get as good a score this season, but some reasonable 4th choices in there
Strikers: Zamora is a good, cheap back-up

Hull
Defence: looks a weak side, but Turner may be worth it at only 4.5
Midfield: I wouldn't trust them
Strikers: ditto

Liverpool
Defence: Solid, Reina a cautious choice, rotation policy and injury means Carragher is only real prospect - Johnson more expensive and a risk
Midfield: Gerrard, Kuyt may repeat last season's performance but is probably over-valued now, other players are rotated too much - Mascherano may be a good buy at only 5 mil though
Strikers: Torres is the best prospect in the league, but may not be worth the large price tag

City
Defence: Given is a good choice for keeper, back four may be unsettled for a while, unwise to test it just yet
Midfield: Again, unsure of what will happen, Ireland and Barry were previously big names but the price tags are too high for the current risk
Strikers: Unpredictable, not much value in there

United
Defence: solid, but some injuries - Ferdinand may represent the best value, also O'Shea would be excellent value if he is as regular as last season
Midfield: No bargains due to rotation, Carrick reasonable but not brilliant value, Valencia may be worth a shot - depends how he is in front of goal
Strikers: Owen represents the best opportunity here, other two are poor value - Owen is a good price but risky

Portsmouth
No, just no - but Distin may be worth following if he leaves

Stoke
Defence: Sorenson represents decent value, defence are good value as back-up
Midfield: Good value player in Delap, useful for ballast
Strikers: Fuller or Beattie may be good as second-string forward

Sunderland
Defence: Possible cheap options in the forms of Collins and Ferdinand
Midfield: Malbranque is good value for his 6 million, Richardson may be worth it (if you're a Sunderland fan)
Strikers: Kenwyne Jones is about it - not the best in his bracket

Tottenham
Defence: Avoid like the plague - the defence is a shambles, and even if Harry sorts it out, it won't be ready for a few weeks
Midfield: You might want to take a punt on Modric or Lennon improving this year, maybe even Jenas - Huddlestone can do quite well at only 5 mil, but Bentley is over-priced
Forwards: Crouch, Keane and Defoe - should be plenty of goals at White Hart Lane - Crouchy represents the best value, but Defoe will probably get more goals if you think he's worth it

West Ham
Defence: Rob Green is a good keeper, but with the departures this season how much can he do? Upson is a traditionally good performer at the 5.5 price, but again, be wary of a weakened side
Midfield: Very little of note - injuries saw a lot of rotation last season - noone reliable there
Strikers: Maybe Carlton Cole will do it again? He's their only threat so he may score again, but he has pushed up to 7 million after last season so I don't recommend him

Wigan
Defence: worth looking at - Wigan look good for the season and have a solid, reliable defence - Kirkland also worth looking at
Midfield: less so here, a lot of cheap players, but there's better out there
Strikers: Nope

Wolves
Defence: new signing Hahnemann may be a good shot-stopper, but I doubt they'll be getting many clean sheets
Midfield: Best off out of it
Strikes: Ebanks-Blake or Doyle may be a cheap option